NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks | Divisional Round
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for the Divisional Round.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| Packers vs. 49ers |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions |
| Chiefs vs. Bills |
| Texans vs. Ravens |
Green Bay Packers
I’ve been banging this drum all year that if there’s one “weakness” for the 49ers defense this year, it’s been shifty slot receivers getting the touchdowns. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Christian Kirk, DeVonta Smith and Tyler Boyd are some of the receivers who had some big games on this defense.
That's why if I’m betting on a Packers player, I’m immediately looking toward Jayden Reed at +220. The rookie receiver not only fits the profile, but he’s done pretty well against zone coverage, which the Niners play at an above-league-average rate. Now, WR Romeo Doubs has also had great metrics against zone coverage, but I’d rather go with Reed given his rushing ability (two rushing TDs) and that he lines up in the slot more than Doubs.
My man Nick Giffen and I locked this one in on Monday: We both grabbed QB Jordan Love at +1200. Part of it was an odds play, but another factor is that he has four rushing TDs this season and the Niners did rank 15th in DVOA against the run compared to fourth in DVOA against the pass. It’s dropped to +1000, and that’s my cutoff price.
Verdict: Bet Jayden Reed +210 (FanDuel) & Jordan Love +1100 (ESPN BET; play +1000 or higher)
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San Francisco 49ers
Sportsbooks aren’t going to give you anything free in this life and that includes value on 49ers TD scorers. Four of the top-five options to bet are Niners with each of them at +150 or lower with RB Christian McCaffrey as short as -400 at some sportsbooks.
Of that group, I’d lean toward TE George Kittle at +145 because the Packers weren’t great coming into the playoffs stopping TEs (28th in DVOA) and just allowed Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson to score three times. Still, it’s hard to feel great about it since Kittle could have a quiet game while the Niners still win very easily.
Instead, I’d rather lean into the blowout angle. If the Niners are this big of a favorite and have nearly 30 points expected, take a flier on RB2 Elijah Mitchell at +550. You could even lean into the angle even more and make a second-half ATD bet at +1600. He scored in each of the 49ers' last two regular-season games heading into the playoffs.
Verdict: Sprinkle Eli Mitchell +550 (PointsBet) for blowout factor
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you’re betting on a Bucs TD scorer, the natural instinct would be to bet WR Mike Evans each week. You wouldn't have been disappointed with that strategy since Evans finished the regular season at +12.2 units in profit in this betting market if you bet him every week. His odds have continued to plummet, though, and he’s now +120 to score compared to +175 when the Bucs played the Lions back in Week 6. I have no doubt that QB Baker Mayfield will look for Evans often in this , and he should’ve scored an easy touchdown last week against the Eagles but dropped the pass.
As a fellow Cade Otton truther, I have to go back to him again this week after a huge breakout game in the Wild Card round. Otton led the Bucs with 11 targets and eight catches to go with two red-zone targets but, a recurring theme, a drop in the end zone. Much like Tampa Bay, the Lions rank seventh for DVOA against TE but are bottom-10 in targets, catches and yards allowed.
At +350 or better, I’m willing to take another swing on Otton in what could be a trailing game script for the Buccaneers on the road.
Verdict: Bet Cade Otton +360 (FanDuel)
Detroit Lions
For the people in the back: “Jared Goff, indoors.” I harp on this point every week but it bears repeating to ensure this becomes common knowledge. Goff has been infinitely better when playing indoors in his career. There’s a large enough sample size now where it’s nearly undeniable.
Since joining the Lions, Goff has a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio when playing indoors, and all of his passing metrics go up inside a dome. Now, he only threw for one TD last week against the Rams, but he was still pinpoint accurate, finishing 22-for-27 without an interception. Goff has also done fairly well against the blitz (13 TDs, six INTs and first in passing yards), which the Bucs did at the third-highest rate in NFL during the regular season.
Upon first glance at the TD scorer odds, you’ve got three Lions right at the top with RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs along with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Of those three, I’d likely side with the St. Brown, but my favorite pick is below them.
At as high as +180, Sam LaPorta is who I'm looking toward. Although the Bucs rank as an above-average defense in DVOA when defending TEs (13th), they still allowed the most targets, catches and yards to TE — and, most relevant here, seven touchdowns. Last week, Eagles TE Dallas Goedert also scored in the Wild Card Round on Tampa Bay at +240.
If LaPorta isn’t enough, try Lions WR2 Josh Reynolds at +320. He finished the Lions' win over the Rams with the second-most catches on the team and played more than 85% of snaps. If St. Brown isn’t able to get loose, look for Goff to sling it to Reynolds, who also had the third-most receiving TDs for Detroit during the regular season.
Verdict: Bet Sam LaPorta +180 (Caesars; bet +165 or higher) & Josh Reynolds +320 (FanDuel)
Kansas City Chiefs
Even in a road game with a total below 50, the Chiefs' ATD premium is alive and well. Three of their top four options are +140 at best, with TE Travis Kelce having the longest odds between himself, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. This doesn’t mean Kansas City won’t score, but it means you’ll need to take these players at a heavily steamed price.
I’m much higher on the Chiefs defense than their offense this season. They may have bamboozled some into thinking they’re back on track after the easy victory over the Dolphins, but this is still an offense that only scored 30 or more points three times all season and averaged 20.3 points per game in the regular season after its Week 10 bye. We’ll be lucky to see three TDs from the K.C. side on offense.
I took a long shot last week with TE Noah Gray at +800 and while that didn’t come through, I still am in the camp of taking a Chiefs player with longer odds like Justin Watson at +550 or Marques Valdes-Scantling at +850. We know QB Patrick Mahomes will find a way to buy time in the pocket with his legs which means downfield threats like Watson and MVS can hopefully get open.
The Bills ranked 23rd in DVOA against deep passes and 25th in DVOA against opposing WR2s, so I’d likely opt for Watson. He’s playing the second-most snaps of any Chiefs WR and has had flashes of success against both man and zone coverages. Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been effective really against any defense this year.
Watson also was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs offense in the second half of the season, catching all three of his touchdowns after the team's Week 10 bye.
Verdict: Bet Justin Watson +550 (bet365)
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Buffalo Bills
Since the midpoint of the season when it seemed like Buffalo was going miss the playoffs, the offense has shifted into an aggressive running attack and less on the explosive pass. As a result, QB Josh Allen finished with his fewest passing touchdowns (29) since his second year in the NFL but has exploded with his legs and was second in the NFL in rushing TDs (15). That’s why Allen has the same ATD odds as someone like Jalen Hurts or Raheem Mostert, who are typically around -120 to +100.
Do I think Allen will score again in the Divisional Round? Perhaps, but I can’t endorse him at those odds.
Instead, I’m looking at RB James Cook to bounce back. The second-year RB has been a frustrating player to bet in this market because Allen consistently has vultured him at the goal line. The good news for Cook is this is a decent matchup for him as the Bills' main pass-catching back, a profile of player the Chiefs have struggled with this season. K.C. ranks 21st in DVOA against RB as receivers and has allowed four TDs.
Cook has seen 18 red-zone touches over the last five games and dropped an easy touchdown on Monday against the Steelers. Also, for what it’s worth, he scored when the Bills faced the Chiefs during the regular season and finished with five catches and 83 yards in that game.
Cook's odds aren't sexy at +150 but when the Bills get to the goal line, they’re not going to be so predictable and have Allen carry the ball right away until they need to have it. Cook will at least get the first few goal-line opportunities, whether that's a carry or a quick pass to the end zone.
I had expected odds for Cook at +120 given his recent volume carrying the football and the Chiefs ranking 27th in DVOA against the run. At +150, you could also potentially wait until closer to kickoff to see if the odds go up more.
Verdict: Bet James Cook +150 (ESPN BET)
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Houston Texans
The first question that popped into my mind was, “How does C.J. Stroud play outdoors compared to indoors?” The answer is mixed when it comes to Texans TD scorers.
In five outdoor games played with Stroud at QB, the Texans offense has had two decent performances (Bengals and Jaguars) and three horrendous games (Jets, Panthers and Ravens). The last time the Texans played an outdoor game, Stroud got hurt in the fourth quarter and only managed 135 pass yards against an aggressive Jets secondary in awful conditions.
Now, does that mean we just write off Texans TD scorers? No, but it does mean we should manage your expectations in case Houston lays a dud. For what it’s worth, Stroud does have two of his three rushing TDs in outdoor games with a higher yards-per-carry and rush attempts average, which makes him intriguing at +1000 or higher.
The Ravens defense is aggressive and typically likes to use man coverage, playing it above league average and playing zone at a bottom-10 rate. Well, we just saw last week what Texans WR Nico Collins does to man coverage as he finished with six catches and a touchdown. As amazing as he has looked over the last couple of games, I'd still prefer to get at least +175 odds instead of +160.
Another one to consider is TE2 Brevin Jordan at +950. He excelled against man coverage this season with the second-highest yards-per-route-run rate (YPRR) on the team behind Collins to go with two TDs. He also scored a 76-yard TD last week against the Browns, who also played man coverage at a high rate. TE1 Dalton Schultz also scored last week, but he’s struggled heavily against man coverage this season with his target share, YPRR and average depth of target (aDOT) all going down and no TDs. Jordan is worth a sprinkle.
Verdict: Bet Nico Collins at +175 or higher | Sprinkle Brevin Jordan TD at +950 (PointsBet)
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Baltimore Ravens
Ravens runners are going to feast, and we are severely underestimating their run game against the Texans. I talked last week about how the Texans may have ranked second in DVOA against the run, but that was mainly because they could keep teams honest between the 20s. In the red zone is where the run defense fell apart.
Houston allowed 19 rushing TDs coming into the playoffs (ranked 29th in NFL). Then, early on against the Browns, Houston gave up a TD to RB Kareem Hunt and another via the pass inside the 10-yard line. It’s a recipe for disaster if the Texans offense doesn’t strike early because the Ravens are built to play with a lead and showed that this season by outscoring opponents by an average of 9.6 points per game in the first half.
RB Gus Edwards is the easy and obvious answer here. It’s not fantastic odds at +140, so it won’t feel like a sexy option. These odds should be closer to -120, though, given that he had 15 red-zone carries over the final four games of the season and scored in three of them. Lamar Jackson may vulture him, but that’s just a result you’re going to have to live with because if Jackson scoring, that likely means the Ravens are rolling.
There’s also a lot of upside with WR Odell Beckham Jr. and TE Isaiah Likely, but their involvement depends on the Ravens' health. Beckham should be rested enough to play a healthy amount of snaps in the red zone and he’s scored all of his TDs in home games. Likely has my interest because I’m not convinced TE1 Mark Andrews is going to waltz back in and be an instant red-zone threat. Even if Andrews does play, Likely has proven he deserves a role in this offense. We saw what David Njoku did last week against the Texans, which is noteworthy even if he didn’t find the end zone.
Verdict: Bet Gus Edwards +140 (ESPN BET) & Isaiah Likely +210 (PointsBet)
