NFL Props: Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for the NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Previews
| Picks |
|---|
| Bears vs. Browns |
| Falcons vs. Panthers |
| Jets vs. Dolphins |
| Texans vs. Titans |
| Giants vs. Saints |
| Bucs vs. Packers |
| Chiefs vs. Patriots |
| 49ers vs. Cardinals |
| Commanders vs. Rams |
| Cowboys vs. Bills |
Odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Incoming weather is expected for Cleveland on Sunday, which means betting on passing touchdowns could be tricky. QB Joe Flacco has looked great in limited action for the Browns, but the Bears defense has become a mini-juggernaut since trading for Montez Sweat. Since getting him from Washington, the Bears are top five in pass yards allowed, ninth in scoring defense along with 11 takeaways. Couple the Bears with the Browns top-rated pass defense and it’s probably not worth it to bet most pass-catchers in this one.
QB Justin Fields seems to be a decent option running the ball, especially at the odds of +210. He ran for a TD last week against the Lions and has carried the ball 42 times in just the last three games. The Browns have also given up five rushing TD to QBs this season.
My normal go-to guy for the Browns has always been RB2 Kareem Hunt and while he did score last week, RB1 Jerome Ford has consistently out-snapped him. If Flacco continues to opt for his TEs, take a swing on TE2 Harrison Bryant at +850. He scored in Flacco’s first start this season and TE1 David Njoku scored twice last week. Njoku is only +250 to score this week compared to +450 in Week 14.
Verdict: Justin Fields +250 (FanDuel) & sprinkle Harrison Bryant +850 (DraftKings)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taWx4-UH2rM
Look, it’s not sexy at all, but this is a clear-cut matchup advantage for the Falcons run game. That’s why if you’re looking past anyone besides RB Bijan Robinson or RB Tyler Allgeier, you haven’t been watching Atlanta this season.
Both Falcons running backs scored on this defense in Week 1 and the Panthers have shown no signs of improvement on that front. Carolina has allowed seven touchdowns to RB1 in the last seven games with a score allowed in each of those games to the top back. With Robinson at +120, that’s about as much risk as I’m willing to take on the Falcons, who continue to be a frustrating squad throwing the football.
If the Panthers can actually get into the red zone, just stick to RB Chuba Hubbard at +200. With 48 carries in the last two games along with getting to be the passing-down back, that lends itself well to a Carolina team that will likely be trailing. With the Falcons ranking 32nd in DVOA against RBs in the passing game, I’ll take my chances on Hubbard to continue to get the volume.
Verdict: Bijan Robinson +145 (FanDuel) & Chuba Hubbard +187 (bet365)
These two teams met on Black Friday and although WR Tyreek Hill scored in that matchup, the Jets secondary has been super tight against WRs this year, allowing just three touchdowns to the position all season. Now, Hill is on the mend with an ankle injury so while he may be able to gut it out, he may not be 100%.
It pains me to do this because I loathe betting on Jets TD scorers, but I think we have to go back to WR Garrett Wilson at +260. He scored against the Dolphins in the Black Friday matchup and while QB play has held him back, the volume is there with double-digit targets in seven of the last 10 games. The Dolphins also just gave up two passing TDs last week to Titans WRs.
Verdict: Garrett Wilson +275 (bet365)
The Titans are coming off a huge win over the Dolphins but what was impressive was how involved they got DeAndre Hopkins. At +175, he’d be the Titans player I’m eying as all of his TD catches this year have come from rookie QB Will Levis and he’s gotten into the end zone in three of the last four games.
If the Texans offense is back from all the injuries, we might see a shootout in Tennessee. Just don’t bank heavily on Texans running backs. The Titans, for all their faults, still have a strong defensive line and rank fourth in DVOA in defending the run. Even if it was a good matchup, the Texans run game has been a mess all season.
If the likes of TE Dalton Schultz or WR Nico Collins are out, it could be an uphill battle for Houston. That's not taking into account Tank Dell's absence, as well as the fact that C.J. Stroud is out.
Betting on Saints TD scorers is the equivalent of standing on the high dive at a swimming pool and wrestling with your thoughts. "I’m gonna do it! I’m gonna do it! Oh God, please don’t make me do it." Then you jump in the water, don't bump your head, become grateful and conclude you won’t be doing that again.
Well, I must have hit my head because all I see is WR Rashid Shaheed back in the lineup and now I want to go do it again.
The Giants play man coverage and the second-highest rate in the NFL and Shaheed has seen a boost in his average depth of target and yards per route run against man defense, and he has two TDs against the coverage with zero against zone.
Verdict: Rashid Shaheed +275 (bet365)
Although this game has a total of 42, I’m uneasy about betting TD scorers given the odds.
Outside of WR Mike Evans at +150, it’s hard to trust anyone else on the Bucs outside of RB Rachaad White, but he’s -120 this week. Stick with Evans, who has been matchup-proof all year. The Packers defense ranks 25th in DVOA defending the pass and 24th in DVOA against the deep pass, which has been Evans' specialty this season.
If I’m betting a Packers player, it has to be Jayden Reed at +150. He’s been a gadget player all season, but he has shown that he’ll get looks in the passing game and in the run game inside the red zone. He has seven total touchdowns this season and leads the team with 17 red-zone touches.
Verdict: Mike Evans +160 (Caesars) & Jayden Reed +150 (bet365)
The Chiefs are in rare territory, losing back-to-back games and having very little offense to show for it.
Everyone will point to TE Travis Kelce in a potential get-right game but I’d rather bank on Chiefs RBs like RB2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire. RB1 Isiah Pacheco is out and CEH out-carried pass-catching back Jerick McKinnon 11-4 while out-targeting him 4-3 in Week 14. McKinnon was able to get the touchdown last week, but CEH got the goal-line carries so I’m willing to bank on the former first-round pick.
I get the Patriots had a nice little win last week against the Steelers, but QB Bailey Zappe could be exposed by the Chiefs secondary that ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass. RB1 Ezekiel Elliott is all the way down to +150 now after being as high as +230 last week. The Chiefs are 30th in DVOA against the run and Zeke might get close to 20 carries. Unless you want to take a flier on RB2 Jamychal Hasty at +1800 or Zappe at +900, it has to be Elliott for the Patriots.
The last time these two teams played, RB Christian McCaffrey went nuclear for three TDs in the first half. While I’m sure he’ll have more success against this Cardinals defense, there's no way can I endorse a -300 ATD bet given all the risks and variables in an NFL game.
The Cardinals struggle everywhere defensively so if you feel passionate about a certain 49ers player to score, hammer down. In this case, I’d look at backup RBs Jordan Mason or Elijah Mitchell, both at +450, as the spread and potential game script points to a blowout.
Verdict: Jordan Mason (Caesars) and Elijah Mitchell (bet365), each at +450
This one is super easy. Just give me all of the Rams receiving TD props, specifically with WR Cooper Kupp and WR Puka Nakua. The latter is my preference at +130 as he’s been electric all season in this offense. While he has missed a few plays here or there, he hasn’t had the injury history of Kupp. The Commanders rank last in passing TDs allowed, last in TDs to WRs and last in DVOA to the deep pass. Don’t overthink it.
On the other side, the Rams rank 29th in DVOA against opposing TEs this season, last in TDs allowed to TEs with seven. L.A. also has given up a TD to a TE in each of the last two games. So, let's bet Logan Thomas at +320.
Verdict: Puka Nakua +130 (FanDuel) & Logan Thomas +340 (Caesars)
Can you really suggest a Bills TD prop right now and not take Josh Allen? The Bills are essentially in playoff mode the rest of the way and that’s when Allen starts to use his legs even more. This season, he already has 10 rushing TDs (a career high) and the Cowboys have had struggles at times this season to contain the run.
Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks has really impressed in his first season with Dallas. He has five touchdowns in the last eight games and has emerged as a bona fide WR2 in this offense. Well, the Bills secondary has struggled defending the pass this season and id last in DVOA against WR2. Dallas has been red-hot throwing the football and WR1 CeeDee Lamb is always going to produce, but I have to bet Cooks in this spot.
Verdict: Josh Allen +130 (bet365) & Brandin Cooks +260 (PointsBet)
