NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks | Sunday Week 18
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for Week 18.
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
The Battle of Ohio is now the "Battle of Backup QBs" with Joe Flacco resting in Week 18. With the Browns locking up a wild-card spot without anywhere to move in the AFC standings, don’t expect a full complement of Cleveland players to choose from. As a result, I’d steer clear of Browns TD scorers for this final week. The same goes for Bengals TD scorers since Cincinnati is eliminated from playoff contention.
Verdict: Meaningless game, pass
It’s almost hilarious how much WR Mike Evans has abused the Panthers in his career. Since 2020, he’s played the Panthers five times and has scored in four of them with eight touchdowns. And it’s not just one quick target and he’s gone. Evans has seen at least 10 targets in four of those games, as well.
I’m trying my best to find value for the Bucs but with this kind of track record and how often QB Baker Mayfield consistently looks for Evans, it’s tough to ignore him. You could talk yourself into a Trey Palmer TD at +450 if you’re looking for a long shot. Palmer's target share is consistent each week and he has three touchdowns this season, which is the same amount as Chris Godwin, who’s +280.
I don’t have much faith in the Panthers offense even if they showed some life in the second half of the season, but TE Tommy Tremble could be interesting at +650. He scored in both games against the Bucs last season and plays the most snaps of any TE on the roster. Also, Tampa Bay has allowed seven touchdowns to opposing TEs this year.
Verdict: Bet Mike Evans +125 (bet365) & Tommy Tremble +600 (bet365)
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Now, this game isn’t meaningless as both teams are expected to play regular starters, but how could you even want to bet a TD scorer in this game? It’s currently listed with the lowest game total of the season (30.5) and the last time these two teams played, it was 15-10. Now, TE Pharaoh Brown and FB Nick Bawden each scored in that game and were both well over +3000 to score.
Still, the Patriots have no incentive to win other than their winning streak over the Jets. That may be enough for some but not enough for me to bet TD scorers.
Verdict: Sort of meaningless but pass since both teams are awful
For the Vikings, my guy Brian Matthews made this very clear: Nick Mullens is a chucker and we need to take advantage of that. He had four interceptions in the Vikings' last matchup with the Lions but showed no fear in slinging the ball downfield to let his receivers make a play. That’s why I will go chalk again and just take Justin Jefferson at +130. With 30 targets over the last three games and no T.J. Hockenson, I expect Jefferson to see double-digit targets again in a favorable matchup.
I say this every week but it bears repeating: Jared Goff in a dome. The Lions' passing offense gets a huge bump when playing indoors with Goff having 21 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. These teams played only a couple of weeks ago, and it was the Lions run game that went to work with three rushing touchdowns. I expect the Lions to lean on that type of attack again, which means you can’t go wrong with RB David Montgomery at +120. It’s not a ton of value in terms of his odds but with 51 red-zone touches this year and at least three red-zone carries in every game since Week 10, he's hard to ignore in such a favorable matchup.
Verdict: Bet Justin Jefferson +125 (bet365) & David Montgomery +125 (FanDuel)
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Everyone and their grandmother know about Titans WR Deandre Hopkins' contract incentives. He needs at least six catches and two touchdowns to reach them. He did score on the Jaguars in garbage time when they last played, so I’d consider his TD at +200 but am not going to ladder and bet him to score two touchdowns for the sole reason that NFL owners are greedy and don’t have a huge incentive to let players reach them either. Another Titans receiver I’d consider is Chigoziem Okowko at +400 since the Jaguars have had recent struggles against opposing TEs.
For the Jaguars, WR Calvin Ridley was heavily featured when these two played earlier in the year and at +175, it’s not an awful price for a WR1. This is a good matchup for Ridley, as well, since the Titans are 24th in Pass DVOA and 31st against opposing WR1. I know the Jags activated WR Christian Kirk to come back from IR, so monitor that to see if Ridley’s odds shift as a result.
Verdict: Bet DeAndre Hopkins +200 (Caesars) & Calvin Ridley +175 (bet365); sprinkle on Okonwko +400 (bet365)
The last time these two teams played, it may have been the worst pairing of QB performances I’ve seen this season. While it could be Taylor Heinicke if his ankle is healthy, it's still Derek Carr for the Saints. Carr surprisingly has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last four games.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara is looking like he won’t play in the season finale and while the natural instinct is to turn to RB2 Jamaal Williams, I’m immediately looking for Taysom Hill at +250. He hasn’t scored in his last three games, but part of that was the matchup he faced and game scripts that moved New Orleans away from him. Facing the Falcons, the Saints are going to need to rely on him, especially in the red zone where he has 33 touches this season.
If I’m betting a Falcons TD scorer, it’s going to be TE Kyle Pitts at +350. He has two touchdowns in the last four games and while TE Jonnu Smith could potentially vulture, he hasn’t scored in six games. We’ve seen some TEs have some big games against the Saints this year, so let’s see if Pitts can finally live up to his lofty hype.
Verdict: Bet Taysom Hill +260 (bet365) & Kyle Pitts +370 (FanDuel)
Most of the Cowboys players have steamed touchdown odds this week, so it's difficult to find value unless you want to go down the depth chart for the likes of Michael Gallup. Even then, his odds are as low as +210.
I would punt on Cowboys TD scorers in this game unless you want to take a long shot on WR Kavontae Turpin. He scored the last time these teams played, and the Commanders still play a lot of man coverage, against which Turpin has in 2023. If that doesn’t do it for you, wait until next week for Wild Card Weekend when the TD odds will likely offer some more value.
I’m a sucker for Commanders TD bets, especially for their WRs because QB Sam Howell, for all his faults, is a slinger and will throw the ball into tight windows to make a play. That bravado is why he leads the NFL in interceptions, but it’s also why I keep coming back to the likes of WR Curtis Samuel.
Samuel leads Washington in red-zone targets and his yards per route run and average depth of target actually go up against man coverage, which the Cowboys play at the fourth-highest rate in NFL. When these teams played on Thanksgiving, it was Samuel who led Washington with 12 targets and 100 receiving yards. With this ability to take carries in the backfield, I’ll ride with Samuel again.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Kavontae Turpin +1100 (Caesars) & Curtis Samuel +380 (DraftKings)
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes isn’t expected to play for Week 18. If you want to consider Chargers QB Easton Stick to run one in, that’s fine but just know that’s probably the only “starter” expected to play.
Verdict: Meaningless game, pass
A lot has changed since Week 1 when these two teams last played. Both are onto new quarterbacks and, in the Raiders’ case, a new coach.
Davante Adams is coming off a 21-target game with two touchdowns, so he’s going to be a logical choice by bettors at +165, but I keep coming back to Jakobi Meyers at +260. He sometimes gets forgotten in this offense but scored twice in Week 1 and has five red-zone targets in the last three games. Lost in the showing from Adams last week was that Meyers still had 10 targets. I expect the Broncos to try and repeat what they did in Week 1 and blanket Adams, which will leave Meyers in the slot to score.
I know he was Russell Wilson’s favorite target and just came off a one-target game vs the Patriots before missing Week 17, but how do we pass on WR Courtland Sutton at +230? For reference, he was +140 two weeks ago against New England, which, to its credit, excels at taking away the opponent's top option and is second in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Sutton left the Patriots game with a concussion but is expected back this week. I’ve been auto-betting Sutton every week when he was over +200, so will keep at it for the final week of the season.
Verdict: Bet Jakobi Meyers +250 (FanDuel) & Courtland Sutton +230 (FanDuel)
Both Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford are out, with the 49ers locked into the one seed and the Rams set to be No. 6 or 7 in the NFC. Los Angeles' priority is to make sure Stafford makes it to the playoffs.
The 49ers' health is key to their Super Bowl aspirations, so don’t expect to see the likes of RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel or LT Trent Williams either.
Verdict: Meaningless game, pass
Seems like the “Boston Scott, Giants Killer” narrative fell off a steep cliff after the last time these two teams met when the running back’s TD odds were steamed all the way down to +350 by kickoff. Now, they’re back up to +600 this week and that’s still gross. Do not play that. It should be +1000 or better in this offense given where he is in the pecking order on the roster and the overall opportunities he’s been given this season.
Now, that we got that out of the way, I do like TE Dallas Goedert at +260 to score on this Giants defense. New York has been one of the better teams defending tight ends this season (four touchdowns allowed), but Goedert should see an elevated role with WR2 Devonta Smith likely out. Goedert caught a touchdown last week and had seven catches on nine targets when Philadelphia faced the Giants in Week 16. His consistency is why we like him this week as he’s seen 28 targets in four games since coming back from injury.
Verdict: Bet Dallas Goedert +240 (bet365)
The Packers offense has clearly improved over the second half of the season with QB Jordan Love cutting down on turnovers (three interceptions since Week 9) and finding his spots in the pocket. One of Love’s best games this season was Week 1 against the Bears, against whom he threw for three touchdowns and no INTs.
One of the factors for why I like the Packers' passing offense again this week is the Bears play zone at a top-seven rate in the NFL, just like the Vikings, who Green Bay beat up on last week.
Well, Jayden Reed picked Minnesota apart with two receiving TDs. The rookie wide receiver has been nearly matchup-proof this year with multiple scores on man or zone coverage coverage. At +140, it’s a bit too chalky to feel like it's a slam-dunk pick, but Reed fits all game scripts.
As for the Bears, I’m going back to TE Cole Kmet at +290. He’s got six touchdowns this season, plays over 90% of snaps and leads the team with 15 red-zone targets. The Packers rank 26th in DVOA against opposing tight ends and have allowed seven touchdowns to the position this season, as well, so we're on Kmet.
Verdict: Bet Jayden Reed +150 (Caesars) & Cole Kmet +310 (FanDuel)
Rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has really turned it on over the last five games with two touchdowns in that span and at least seven targets in three of them. His role in the slot has turned him into a huge threat in the passing game and has almost made WR2 Tyler Lockett expendable as a result.
That being said, even though he scored vs the Cardinals earlier this season, Smith-Njigba has struggled more against zone coverage, which the Cardinals play at a top-five rate, whereas Lockett has performed much better against zone. With both Smith-Njigba and Lockett around +200 to score, I’d likely opt with the veteran just for this week. For what it's worth, Lockett has scored in the final week of the season in each of the last five years.
Normally, I’d just bet Kyler Murray TD at +230, set it and forget it, but I think WR is the way to go here for the Cardinals. With Marquise Brown out, that leaves WRs Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch to carry the load. The Seahawks play zone at the second-highest rate in the NFL and with Brown gone, the only receiver that fares well against that kind of defense is Wilson, who has a higher average depth of target, yards per route run and first-read percentage than Dortch.
With Dortch at +350 and being the team’s Kick Returner, I wouldn’t fault a Dortch TD bet, but I’d opt with Wilson at +260 in this matchup.
Verdict: Bet Tyler Lockett +200 (BetMGM) & Michael Wilson +280 (Caesars)
