I’m going all-in on 2022 NFL playoff props — and some of the best values on the board are in the yardage leader markets.
I simulated each round of the postseason 10,000 times to calculate the true odds for these markets. And after comparing my projections to various sportsbooks, I’ve made five picks, including Dak Prescott to lead the postseason in passing yards and Cooper Kupp in receiving yards.
NFL Playoff Yardage Leaders
Passing Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | 25.50% | +292 |
| Tom Brady, TB | 18.60% | +438 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | 13.20% | +658 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 11.50% | +770 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 9.30% | +975 |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | 7.60% | +1216 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | 5.30% | +1787 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | 3.20% | +3025 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, SF | 2.60% | +3746 |
| Derek Carr, LV | 1.30% | +7592 |
| Mac Jones, NE | 0.90% | +11011 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Ryan Tannehill, TEN | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | 0.40% | +24900 |
Pick: Dak Prescott +800
There isn't much value in this market, but Prescott at +800 is the best bet.
The Cowboys are around +600 to make the Super Bowl (14.3% implied probability), and he would have a good chance of emerging as this market's leader if that ends up being the case, but his per-game ceiling is high enough to win this market even if they end up playing only three games.
I'm projecting his fair odds closer to +650.
Rushing Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry, TEN | 18.40% | +443 |
| Leonard Fournette, TB | 12.20% | +720 |
| Joe Mixon, CIN | 12.10% | +726 |
| Devin Singletary, BUF | 11.30% | +785 |
| Sony Michel, LAR | 9.10% | +999 |
| Elijah Mitchell, SF | 8.90% | +1024 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL | 6.70% | +1393 |
| Damien Harris, NE | 4.60% | +2074 |
| Aaron Jones, GB | 4.10% | +2339 |
| Darrel Williams, KC | 3.20% | +3025 |
| Josh Jacobs, LV | 2.30% | +4248 |
| Najee Harris, PIT | 1.60% | +6150 |
| A.J. Dillon, GB | 1.40% | +7043 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 1.10% | +8991 |
Click to expand the rest of Koerner's rushing yards leader projections
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| James Conner, ARI | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Chase Edmonds, ARI | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Tony Pollard, DAL | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Miles Sanders, PHI | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Cam Akers, LAR | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Jordan Howard, PHI | 0.10% | +99900 |
Pick: Devin Singletary +1400
Over the past several games, the Bills have become a more run-heavy team, opting to use six offensive linemen at a higher rate to provide Singletary with better running lanes. It's resulted in the best four-game stretch of Singletary's career with rushing lines of 22/86/1, 12/39/1, 23/110/2 and 19/88/1.
I'm betting on him to carry that momentum into the playoffs, where the Bills are among the top Super Bowl contenders with +350 odds to make the big game.
Singletary is a sneaky play in this market. I'm projecting his fair odds closer to +800.
Pick: Elijah Mitchell +2000
The 49ers will try to give Mitchell 20+ touches every game, so if they make it to the playoffs, he'll have an excellent chance to take down this market.
I'm projecting his fair odds closer to +1050.
Receiving Yards Leader
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 19.40% | +415 |
| Davante Adams, GB | 13.50% | +641 |
| Tyreek Hill, KC | 11.20% | +793 |
| Stefon Diggs, BUF | 9.10% | +999 |
| Travis Kelce, KC | 7.20% | +1289 |
| Mike Evans, TB | 6.30% | +1487 |
| Rob Gronkowski, TB | 5.80% | +1624 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, CIN | 5.70% | +1654 |
| CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 5.00% | +1900 |
| Tee Higgins, CIN | 2.80% | +3471 |
| Amari Cooper, DAL | 2.10% | +4662 |
| A.J. Brown, TEN | 1.50% | +6567 |
| Christian Kirk, ARI | 1.10% | +8991 |
Click to expand the rest of Koerner's receiving yards leader projections
| Player | Projected Chance | Koerner's Odds |
|---|---|---|
| George Kittle, SF | 0.90% | +11011 |
| A.J. Green, ARI | 0.70% | +14186 |
| Gabriel Davis, BUF | 0.70% | +14186 |
| Deebo Samuel, SF | 0.70% | +14186 |
| Zach Ertz, ARI | 0.60% | +16567 |
| Dalton Schultz, DAL | 0.60% | +16567 |
| Dallas Goedert, PHI | 0.60% | +16567 |
| Tyler Boyd, CIN | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Hunter Renfrow, LV | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Diontae Johnson, PIT | 0.50% | +19900 |
| Cedrick Wilson, DAL | 0.40% | +24900 |
| Odell Beckham Jr., LAR | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Darren Waller, LV | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Jakobi Meyers, NE | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Brandon Aiyuk, SF | 0.30% | +33233 |
| Dawson Knox, BUF | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Byron Pringle, KC | 0.20% | +49900 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI | 0.20% | +49900 |
| Cole Beasley, BUF | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Zay Jones, LV | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Kendrick Bourne, NE | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Nelson Agholor, NE | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Chase Claypool, PIT | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Tyler Johnson, TB | 0.10% | +99900 |
| Julio Jones, TEN | 0.10% | +99900 |
Pick: Cooper Kupp +900
You don't have to like the Rams' chances of making it to the Super Bowl to like this prop — there is a real chance Kupp can top this market if the Rams play only three games. And if they do make it to the Super Bowl (+500 odds to do so), he will likely win this market.
I'm projecting his fair odds closer to +450 (essentially their chances of making it to the Super Bowl).
Pick: Rob Gronkowski +3000
With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the picture, Tom Brady will have to lean on Gronk even more. He's carrying a ton of momentum into the playoffs with back-to-back games of 100+ yards.
I'm projecting his fair odds closer to +1700.
