Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player props for every slate throughout the 2021 NFL season — and he's targeting eight for Sunday's Week 6 slate.
Koerner has a 422-320-5 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Dolphins–Jaguars Props
Marvin Jones Under 55.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
The Jaguars have become more run-heavy over the past few games. I like the under on Trevor Lawrence's 235.5 passing yards prop, but there's more value in attacking Jones' prop here. He could be the WR who sees the most Byron Jones coverage.
- Bet down to: 53.5
Chiefs–Football Team Props
Darrel Williams Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (+105) at BetMGM
He will become the lead back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for the next few games. I expect Williams to dominate the rushing work but split the passing-down work with Jerrick McKinnon.
- Bet to: -125
Vikings–Panthers Props
Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (-125) at DraftKings
We can expect him to run a route on about 70% of Kirk Cousins' dropbacks. We can also expect him to see high-percentage targets on roughly 16-18% of those routes, giving him a high floor in this market.
- Bet to: -145
Chargers–Ravens Props
Larry Rountree Under 15.5 Rush Yards (-120) at FanDuel
Last week Justin Jackson was doubtful, so I took Rountree to go over 15.5 rushing yards since he had been splitting backup duties with Jackson for the first four games. So, naturally, the Chargers didn't use Rountree in Week 5 and instead kicked the tires on Joshua Kelley, who was a healthy scratch for the first four games.
Jackson returns this week, which would make Rountree (at best) part of a three-way committee for a handful of non-Austin Ekeler carries this week. Of course, Rountree may end up being inactive, and this bet gets voided, but it's too good to pass up.
- Bet down to: 10.5
Austin Ekeler Under 44.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
This market is too high. The Ravens should blitz Justin Herbert heavily in this game, attempting to generate pressure. There is a chance he ends up getting 5-6 receptions here as a result. However, Ekeler has averaged a measly 4.1 yards per catch on his eight receptions when Herbert was under pressure.
- Bet down to: 41.5
Bengals–Lions Props
Tyler Boyd Over 4.5 receptions (-135) at DraftKings
Joe Burrow should have his way with the Lions secondary this week. I'm projecting Boyd closer to 5.5 receptions and he is a very consistent, high-floor player, so I like taking the over 4.5 here.
- Bet to: -150
Cardinals–Browns Props
Austin Hooper Under 22.5 Rec Yards (-110) at BetMGM
David Njoku should command more playing time and targets this week after a monster Week 5. Hooper is a low aDOT player (4.2 is fifth-lowest among qualified WR/TE) who could get three receptions and still go under this number.
- Bet down to: 20.5
Texans–Colts Props
Chris Conley Under 28.5 Rec Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Conley had a big Week 5, but he racked up only 13 receiving yards over the past three games combined, despite averaging a 95% routes run rate. Additionally, his playing time should take a hit this week with third-round rookie Nico Collins and (potentially) Danny Amendola returning.
- Bet down to: 25.5
