Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL player props for Monday night.
He has a 500-394-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
NFL Props
Josh Jacobs Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Jacobs has received 78% of the Raiders' rush attempts in the two games since Kenyan Drake's season-ending injury. Unfortunately, both games were negative game scripts in which the Raiders lost.
On Monday, though, the Raiders are 3-point favorites against a Browns team that has been hit hard by COVID on both sides of the ball (check real-time NFL odds here). It creates an opportunity for Jacobs to see one of his biggest workloads of the season.
Jalen Richard is also expected to return to action, which means he could give Jacobs a few breathers on passing downs (only to allow him even more work on early downs).
This season, the Raiders have averaged 28 rush attempts per game in wins and only 17 rush attempts per game in their losses. I'm projecting them for around 24.5 attempts as a team on Monday, with Jacobs getting approximately 17.
After simulating this game 10,000 times, his median rushing yards should be closer to 64.5 and I would bet this up to 59.5 yards.
Jacobs has gone over this number only twice this season, which may prevent too much action from coming in on his over, but there's sneaky upside here and I'm willing to roll the dice.
Pick: Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
