Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL player props for every primetime game. Find his three favorite for Chiefs-Raiders on Sunday Night Football below.
Koerner has a 453-345-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props: Chiefs-Raiders
Derek Carr Under 6.5 Rush Yards (-110)
FanDuel raised Carr’s rushing prop to 6.5, one yard higher than the rest of the market. And while that one yard may not seem like much, it creates a ton of value on his under.
I love taking advantage of these spots when they involve a pocket passer like Carr.
Look no further than just how valuable getting 6.5 (vs. 5.5) has been with Carr’s rushing prop this season:
- Carr Over 5.5 Rushing Yards: 50% of the time
- Carr Over 6.5 Rushing Yards: 25% of the time
That split is thanks in part to two games in which he rushed for 6 yards exactly.
Best book as of writing:FanDuel
Bet to: No further, but up to -130 juice
Bryan Edwards Under 41.5 Rec Yards (-120)
Edwards carries a very low weekly floor. He has a median of 41.5 receiving yards per game, but it's inflated given the Raiders have thrown for a median of 332 passing yards per game this season and Carr’s passing yard prop is ~290 for tonight.
I’m expecting the Raiders to lean heavily on Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow in the passing game on Sunday night. I also expect newly-signed DeSean Jackson to get enough playing time to negatively impact Edwards.
Best book as of writing:DraftKings
Bet to: 40.5 yards
Darrel Williams Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (+105)
I bet on Williams to go over 13.5 rush attempts in Week 8 because I projected him for 15.5 rush attempts. Sure enough, he finished with 13 attempts because Derrick Gore was unleashed for 11 carries and 48 yards.
Last week, I held off doubling down on Williams by taking his over 13.5 attempts. He finished with 19.
I’m projecting him for around 15.5 rush attempts for the third straight week. Hopefully, the third time will be the charm for this prop.
Best book as of writing:DraftKings
Bet to: No further, but up to -130 juice
