Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his favorite NFL player props for every primetime game. Find his top pick for Rams vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football below, featuring San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Koerner has a 455-346-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props: Rams-49ers
Brandon Aiyuk Under 49.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Aiyuk finally broke out of his slump last week, posting his best game of the season with six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. His underlying usage supports the idea that "he's back," with more than a 90% routes run rate and at least seven targets in each of the past two games.
This recent stretch presents us with a sneaky "sell high" situation on Monday night. Because while I have adjusted his underlying metrics to reflect his recent breakout, I'm still projecting him 11 yards under this number.
Week 9 is the only time this season Aiyuk has gone over 49.5 receiving yards — and it was when Jimmy Garoppolo tied his season-high of 40 pass attempts because the 49ers were forced into a pass-heavy game script against the Cardinals.
Deebo Samuel was also limited with a calf injury in that game. Considering he's not even listed on the injury report, we can assume he's much closer to 100%, and a healthy Samuel would eat into Aiyuk's target share.
And finally, George Kittle returned from IR last week, managing to record six catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on 70% routes run. His playing time will only go up, which means he'll also be eating into Aiyuk's target share.
While Aiyuk will be a more reliable pass-catcher moving forward, his prop for tonight is likely an overreaction to his past couple games.
So far in Week 10, I've projected 16 wide receivers for seven-plus fewer yards than their prop. The under has gone 11-5. And the under has also gone 5-1 for players I've projected for 10+ fewer yards than their prop.
I'm projecting Aiyuk for 11 fewer.
Pick: Under 49.5 Rec Yards (-115) at DraftKings
