Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player props for this Sunday, featuring Amari Cooper and Julio Jones unders. He has a 494-390-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Note that these lines move fast and could be stale by the time you're reading this, which is why we've included his "bet to" threshold for each. You can find his award-winning player projections here.
Sunday NFL Props
Jeff Wilson Under 1.5 Rec
Projection: 1.1
Wilson should see 17-19 carries against the Falcons, but the 49ers use JaMycal Hasty and Kyle Juszczyk as the pass-catching options out of the backfield.
- Bet to: -150
- Best Book: BetMGM
Taysom Hill Over 41.5 Rush Yards
Projection: 48.5
I bet this over early at 41.5 since I expected this line to reach 46.5 by kickoff. Sure enough, it's already moved a few yards as of writing on Sunday morning.
- Bet to: 44.5
- Best Book:DraftKings
Editor's note: The following picks are for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Amari Cooper Under 51.5 Rec Yards
Projection: 45.5
As 11.5-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), the Cowboys will be able to lean on the run game and defense to put away the Giants.
- Bet to: 48.5
- Best Book:FanDuel
Julio Jones Under 53.5 Rec Yards
Projection: 44.5
Jones has cleared this number in only two of seven games this season and I’m projecting the Titans to continue limiting him to around 70% routes run.
- Bet to: 50.5
- Best Book:BetMGM
Najee Harris Over 67.5 Rush Yards
Projection: 74.5
This correlates with my Steelers -1.5 bet — I'm expecting a positive game script for the Steelers in a must win game and Harris will get 80-85% of their rush attempts. Projecting this closer to 74.5
- Bet to: 70.5
- Best Book:DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa Under 252.5 Pass Yards
Projection: 239.5
Jaylen Waddle won't clear COVID protocols in time to return, and I'm expecting a run-heavy game script. Projecting closer to 239.5
- Bet to: 249.5
- Best Book:DraftKings
Myles Gaskin Over 52.5 Rush Yards
Projection: 58.5
This correlates with my Tagovailoa under as I'm expecting a run-heavy game script for the Dolphins as 10-point favorites against the Jets at home this Sunday. Phillip Lindsay and Malcolm Brown were also ruled out, leaving the soft matchup against the Jets' 31st-ranked run defense in Football Outsiders' DVOA alone to Gaskin.
- Bet to: 55.5
- Best Book:FanDuel
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
