» Go to our expert's prop pick for Sunday Night Football
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his top seven NFL player props to bet this Sunday, featuring Tom Brady's rushing over and Adam Thielen's receiving under. Sean Koerner has a 483-372-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Note that these lines move fast, so it's likely some are stale by the time you're reading this story, which is why we've included Koerner's "bet to" threshold for each.
NFL Player Props To Bet
Marvin Jones Under 50.5 Rec Yards (-115)
The Rams play zone coverage at the second-highest rate, but Jones will likely see plenty of Jalen Ramsey on Sunday, and Jones is the only Jags pass-catcher who has been less productive against zone coverage this season.
I lean toward the over on Laviska Shenault's and James O'Shaughnessy's receiving yardage props this week, so I also consider this Jones under as a way to invest in the other two vicariously.
I'm projecting Jones closer to 43.5 receiving yards.
- Bet to: 47.5
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
Will Dissly Under 12.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Dissly has gone over this number in each of the past three games, so I'm putting a ton of faith in my median projection of 9.5 yards here.
A prop like this one is easier to break down in terms of how I treat it mathematically, so let's do that — I'm projecting Dissly for 1.1 receptions, so you can think about the possible outcomes of this prop in three different ways:
- Chances he finishes with 0 catches (automatic win): 33% chance
- Chances he finishes with 2+ catches (likely a loss): 30% chance
- Chances he finishes with 1 catch exactly: 37% chance
Dissly has 15 receptions, six of which have gone for more than 12.5 yards (40%), and nine of which have gone for under 12.5 yards (60%). Therefore, in scenarios in which he finishes with one catch exactly, the under has an edge.
With the assumptions above, I get Dissly going under this prop ~55% of the time. However, there are scenarios in which he ends with two receptions and still manages to stay under 2.5 (like he did in Weeks 4 and 6). That's why I have him around a 62% chance of going under here, despite projecting him only three yards lower than the market.
Another sneaky reason I like this under is the return of rookie Dee Eskridge — I don't think it's a coincidence we have seen Dissly's routes run rate take a considerable dip the past two weeks with Eskridge back in the mix.
- Bet to: No further
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
Editor's note: The following props were for players in the 1 p.m. ET kickoff window.
Tom Brady Over 0.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Brady has gone over this number in nine of 11 games this season and there are several reasons I believe he finishes with positive yardage for the 10th time this season.
First, only one of his 18 rush attempts this season came from a scramble under pressure. It's unlikely the Falcons will be able to get much pressure on Brady, so it was critical to look into how many attempts and yards he's had due to pressure.
One of the ways Brady has been able to rack up rushing yards this season has been on quarterback sneaks — he's always been excellent on sneaks and typically racks up 2-3 yards on each.
Finally, for a quarterback like Brady, kneel-downs play a massive role in his rushing props. He could rush for two yards early in a game, then kneel three times at the end of it to finish with -1 and go under. Considering the Bucs are 11-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), the chances of this type of kneel-down situation are pretty high. That said, the Bucs have used Blaine Gabbert three times in those situations and Brady only twice this season.
So many of the underlying factors support Brady continuing the trend of finishing with positive rushing yards. Every yard in this market is massive, though, so I would not bet it at 1.5 yards.
- Bet to: -130
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Taylor's rushing prop is at an eye-popping 104.5 yards, which my projections are in line with, considering the Colts should lean on him heavily here. There's sneaky value on him to go over his receiving yardage prop, though.
Taylor has been far more productive as a pass-catching back against zone coverage (as are most RBs), and the Texans run zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate. He also has at least two receptions in eight of his past nine games and should need only two again on Sunday to clear this number, as he should have plenty of room to run after the catch.
I'm projecting this closer to 23.5 yards.
- Bet to: 19.5
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
Tyler Johnson Over 13.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Despite Scotty Miller returning from the IR last week, Johnson operated as the Bucs' WR3 with a 67% routes run rate. However, he failed to clear 10+ yards for the second straight game. That's why I'm buying the dip on him as my projection is closer to 21.5 yards.
Johnson has cleared this number in five of seven games in which he's seen a route run rate of 45% or higher.
- Bet to: 16.5
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
Adam Thielen Under 66.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Thielen has cleared this number in only four of 11 games this season. And despite the easy matchup against the winless Lions, he's less likely to have a ceiling game (yardage-wise) as the Vikings offense likely won't have to keep their foot on the gas for all 60 minutes.
Any long Justin Jefferson catch would also negatively impact Thielen's yardage total, and I'd expect Kirk Cousins goes out his way to give Jefferson a couple of deep shots this week.
Thielen is still an excellent play in fantasy football because of his touchdown upside, but I'm projecting him closer to 58.5 receiving yards, so I'll take this under.
- Bet to: 63.5
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
Michael Pittman Jr. Under 62.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Like Thielen, Pittman's ceiling is capped due to a potential blowout. He's averaged 77 yards in Colts' losses this season and only 59 yards in their wins.
T.Y. Hilton's return has lowered Pittman's projection in my model a bit as Pittman has cleared this number only once in the four games in which Hilton ran a route on more than 60% of the dropbacks.
I'm projecting this closer to 54.5 yards.
- Bet to: 59.5
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
