Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his top 10 NFL player props to bet this Sunday based on his projections. He has a 473-360-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
Note that these lines move fast and could be stale by the time you're reading this story, which is why we've included his "bet to" threshold for each.
NFL Player Props For Week 12
Chargers–Broncos Props
Austin Ekeler Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
Ekeler has gone over this number in only four of 10 games this season. The Chargers typically rotate in Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree to see a handful of carries a game to keep Ekeler fresh. Considering they are playing at Mile High, I would expect them to utilize those backs even more.
I'm projecting this closer to 13.2 attempts.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: -140
Vikings–49ers Props
Brandon Aiyuk Under 55.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Aiyuk has cleared this number in only two of 10 games this season. However, there is no denying that he's playing much better of late and has gone over in two of the last three games.
I'm expecting the 49ers to attack the Vikings' run-funnel defense, and we have seen them put together clock-killing drives doing that lately. Last week, they had a 13-minute, 20-play drive that was the longest since 2000.
It's going to be tough for Aiyuk to top 55.5 yards if he has to compete with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for targets, and with the 49ers opting for a low volume, clock-killing offensive approach.
I'm projecting this closer to 47.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 52.5
Rams–Packers Props
Cooper Kupp Under 8.5 Rec (+100)
If there is any WR who deserves a prop this high, it's undoubtedly Kupp. However, I can't avoid attacking this number. He's gone over this number in six of 10 games in what is on pace for a record-breaking season, but he's due for some regression.
I'm projecting him closer to 7.6 receptions and would not be surprised to see him finish with 7-8 here.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -130
Odell Beckham Over 33.5 Rec Yards -(114)
OBJ was thrown into the fire in his Rams debut back in Week 10. He had only a couple of days to learn the playbook and ended up with a 2/18/0 receiving line on 24% routes run.
Despite having the Week 11 bye to get up to speed, head coach Sean McVay said it's still a "work in progress" of incorporating Beckham into the offense. However, with Ben Skowronek ruled out, the Rams will likely force Beckham into a 70-80% routes run role this week.
This number is way too low. I'm projecting it closer to 45.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 37.5
Editor's note: The following props were for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Titans–Patriots Props
Jakobi Meyers Under 51.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Meyers has gone under this number in six straight games and the Patriots are likely won't need to throw too much in order to beat the Titans as 7-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here).
I'm projecting this closer to 43.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 48.5
Jets–Texans Props
Rex Burkhead Over 36.5 Rush Yards (-113)
The combination of a potential positive game script (the Texans are 2.5-point favorites) and the release of Phillip Lindsay makes Burkhead a good bet for 12-15 rush attempts this week. I'm projecting him closer to 45.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 39.5
Buccaneers–Colts Props
Mike Evans Under 67.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Ali Marpet is doubtful due to an abdomen injury, which is a huge blow to this offensive line. Tom Brady is likely to attack the Colts defense with quick, short routes and thus lean on his running backs and tight ends more on Sunday. Rob Gronkowski's return to the lineup will also eat into Evans' target share, so I'm projecting him closer to 59.5 yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 64.5
Panthers–Dolphins Props
Christian McCaffrey Under 52.5 Rec Yards (-113)
It's always scary betting on CMC's receiving yardage under, but I'm trusting my projection here (44.5). This is because McCaffrey, like most RBs, is less productive against man coverage — and the Dolphins run man at a high rate.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 50.5
Cam Newton Over 33.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Meanwhile, the Dolphins' high rate of man coverage should give Newton opportunities to take off and run for chunk gains. His rushing upside is also generally high right now, given he's likely shaken off the rust after playing in two games, but he's also still fresh as he hasn't taken too many hits this late in the season.
I'm projecting him for 41.5 rushing yards.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 36.5
Steelers–Bengals Props
Chase Claypool Under 4.5 Rec (-120)
Claypool is playing through a bad case of turf toe. However, he still managed to catch a solid five passes for 93 scoreless yards with the injury last week.
Claypool is more of a big-play deep threat than a receiver who banks on a ton of volume. I like the idea of taking the under on his receptions just in case the Steelers begin limiting his snaps.
I'm projecting this closer to -150 (assuming he is at full health). Turf toe is no joke, especially for receivers, so this prop has some hidden value on the under.
- Best book as of writing:BetMGM
- Bet to: -145
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
