Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 444-339-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Titans-Rams
Adrian Peterson Over 34.5 Rush Yards
The Titans lost Derrick Henry to a season-ending foot injury in Week 8. While it’s impossible to replace a running back like Henry, the Titans decided to bring in Adrian Peterson to become their lead back. The main question for Peterson’s rushing prop is how much volume we should expect tonight. The 36-year-old back is believed to have stayed in shape as he planned on playing at some point this season.
Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like he impressed the Titans enough that they decided to forego a weekly practice squad evaluation and instead permanently moved him to the active roster, as NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Friday.
NFL Network's Ian Rapapport also reported that the Titans plan on giving Peterson “substantial” carries tonight.
Normally I would be projecting the Titans for 29.5 rush attempts in this spot as 7.5-point underdogs with a negative game script likely. However, without Henry I’m lowering their team projection down to 24, with AP getting roughly half of those carries.
I feel AP has a higher floor than people realize tonight and he should clear 34.5 yards approximately 60% of the time. I would bet this up to 39.5.
Pick: Adrian Peterson Over 34.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Bonus Picks
Julio Jones Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at DraftKings
Julio Jones isn’t even on the injury report this week. If he’s anywhere close to 100%, he sails over this number. The Titans will throw more with Henry out and a negative game script likely. Not to mention that A.J. Brown is playing banged up. I like Jones' over.
Sony Michel Over 22.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
I’m projecting Sony Michel closer to 28.5 rush yards tonight. He should benefit from the positive game script and seems to always get enough change-of-pace work to clear this number. Plus he’s gone over in four of seven games where Darrell Henderson Jr. was also active.
