NFL Props: Interception Bets Week 18
Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback, and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 84-87 for +17.85 units thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings. He finished 2022 at +8.6 units for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Geno Smith
Interception (+130)
I could say I’m taking Geno Smith to throw an interception because I don’t trust him in a big game, but then this write-up would only be one sentence. And while my feelings may be valid, there’s data to support my conviction.
Part of the reason why I like Smith to throw a pick is the Cardinals defense, which plays zone at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Smith has crushed man coverage this year, but he has struggled against zone, with six of his nine interceptions coming against zone defense. He also threw a pick against the Cardinals earlier this season.
With the Seahawks quarterback being pressured on 26% of his dropbacks (fifth-highest rate in the NFL) and the Cardinals forcing an interception in five of seven games since quarterback Kyler Murray returned, I had expected odds at +110. At +130, I’ll take a chance that Smith takes a chance.
