Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL props for Sunday afternoon below, featuring a Josh Allen over and Stefon Diggs under. He has a 513-410-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Note that these lines move fast and could be stale by the time you’re reading this story, which is why we’ve included his “bet to” threshold for each. You can also find his award-winning player projections here.
NFL Props To Bet
Mike Evans Under 50.5 Rec Yards
Evans is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but is reportedly expected to play in a limited capacity, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
- Projection: 43.5
- Bet to: 47.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke Under 204.5 Pass Yards
This number seems high considering head coach Ron Rivera floated the idea that Kyle Allen could see playing time. I would imagine that would happen if the Football Team falls behind the Eagles as 5.5-point underdogs (check real-time NFL odds here), which would lower the chances of Heinicke playing in a pass-heavy game script.
- Bet to: 201.5
- Best book:FanDuel
Sony Michel Over 67.5 Rush Yards
Michel has a tough matchup against a stingy Ravens defense that ranks sixth against the run in Football Outsiders' DOVA, but with Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers set to miss, Michel is a safe bet for 19-26 rush attempts.
- Projection: 76.5
- Bet to: 70.5
- Best book:DraftKings
Josh Allen Over 32.5 Rush Yards
Allen has hit this over in four of his past five games, he could run even more in snow, and the Falcons cough up rushing yards to dual-threat quarterbacks.
- Projection: 37.5
- Bet to: 34.5
- Best book:DraftKings
Stefon Diggs Under 71.5 Rec Yards
With snow in the forecast and the 14 points they're favored by, the Bills might not throw much to beat the Falcons. Plus, Diggs will likely match-up against an underrated A.J. Terrell, who owns the highest coverage grade among 119 qualified cornerbacks at PFF.
- Projection: 63.5
- Bet to: 68.5
- Best book:FanDuel
DeVante Parker Under 52.5 Rec Yards
Parker should bounce back after a zero-catch game, but this line is too high. The potential for snow in Tennessee would also lower my projection.
- Projection: 46.5
- Bet to: 49.5
- Best book:DraftKings
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
