Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player prop for the Saints vs. Cowboys showdown on Thursday Night Football below. He has a 481-372-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props For Saints-Cowboys
Marquez Callaway Under 32.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Taysom Hill is expected to replace Trevor Siemian as the Saints starting quarterback on Thursday night. Considering Hill's unconventional, run-heavy playing style, it's going to shake up the passing game quite a bit.
In Hill's four starts last season, his average depth of target (aDot) was 7.4, which is significantly lower than Jameis Winston's 9.5 and Trevor Siemian's 8.3 aDot marks this season. I'm expecting this to hurt Callaway's target share, whose 14.2 aDot is the highest among pass catchers expected to see significant playing time tonight.
The Saints' offensive line will be without three starters — LT Terron Armstead, LG Andrus Peat and RT Ryan Ramczyk — which likely means that Hill won't have much time to hang in the pocket, waiting for players like Callaway to get open downfield. As a result, I'm expecting a run-heavy, conservative game plan from the Saints, which hurts Callaway's chances of clearing a number he's cleared only once in the past six games.
I'm projecting his median closer to 24.5 and would bet it down to 29.5 yards.
Pick: Under 32.5 Rec Yards (-110) at DraftKings
