» Go to our expert's NFL prop pick for Cowboys-WFT on Sunday Night Football
Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player props for this Sunday. He has a 505-400-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Note that these lines move fast and could be stale by the time you're reading this, which is why we've included his "bet to" threshold for each. You can also find his award-winning player projections here.
Sunday NFL Props
Patrick Mahomes Under 278.5 Pass Yards
Projection: 260.5
Not having Travis Kelce clear COVID protocols in time to play obviously hurts Mahomes. Kelce's absence not only means it could be easier for the Steelers to focus on slowing down Tyreek Hill, but it could also force the Chiefs to lean on the run more in order to attack the primary weakness of the Steelers' defense.
- Bet to: 275.5
- Best Book: FanDuel
Matt Ryan Under 249.5 Pass Yards
Projection: 228.5
Ryan has cleared this number only once over his past six games. While the Lions are an easy matchup for Ryan, a Tim Boyle-led Detroit offense is unlikely to force Ryan into a pass-heavy game script.
- Bet to: 246.5
- Best Book: BetMGM
Tee Higgins Under 64.5 Rec Yards
Projection: 57.5
Higgins thrives against zone coverage, and the Ravens play a ton of man. The Bengals should also be able to put away the Ravens with a run-heavy, conservative game plan.
- Bet to: 61.5
- Best Book: FanDuel
Mark Andrews Under 58.5 Rec Yards
Projection: 50.5
The only thing that could possibly slow down Andrews right now is having a third-stringer start at quarterback after having only a couple weeks to learn the offense. Josh Johnson is decent, but this is a tough spot to be in.
- Bet to: 55.5
- Best Book: FanDuel
Marvin Jones Under 53.5 Rec Yards
Projection: 45.5
Jaguars wide receiver Laviska Shenault was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday. His absence should benefit Jones, but Jones' usage can only increase up by so much.
- Bet to: 50.5
- Best Book: BetMGM
Michael Carter Under 44.5 Rush Yards
Projection: 36.5
Between the Jets missing several offensive linemen and Carter splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, my projections indicate value on this under.
- Bet to: 42.5
- Best Book: FanDuel
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props. Sean breaks down his top player props every week, so be sure to follow him in the Action App to never miss his top plays based on his expert predictions.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
