Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player prop for Steelers-Vikings on Thursday Night Football. He has a 490-379-9 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
TNF Props: Steelers vs. Vikings
Najee Harris Under 72.5 Rush Yards (-110)
There are a few reasons I'm on Harris' under for tonight:
1)The Steelers are 3-point underdogs, which means they're more likely to have a pass-heavy game script. They have the fourth-highest pass rate when trailing, which means it shouldn't be a surprise o find out that Harris has failed to go over this number in any of their five losses. I also like the Vikings to cover at -3, which means I'm projecting the chances of the Steelers having a trailing game script as more likely than the market.
2) The Steelers will be without LG B.J. Finney and G/T Joe Haeg, meaning John Leglue will be making his first career start. Their offensive line has already struggled to create running lanes for Harris this season, so having to reshuffle the line won't help. I can see them using check-downs to Harris as an extension of the rushing game.
3) The Vikings will welcome back LB Eric Kendricks after a one-game absence. He's the heart of this defense, so I expect them to bounce back after last week's loss to the previously-winless Lions and play much better as a result.
4) Harris has dominated rush attempts out of the backfield. However, on the short week, we might see backups like Benny Snell and Kalen Ballage spell Harris on a drive or two, which would also help the under.
Finally, my simulation has him finishing tonight's game with a median closer to 63.5 rushing yards (on 18.5 rush attempts), giving him about a 62% chance of staying under 72.5 yards.
| Yds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 63.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 64.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 65.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 66.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 67.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 68.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 69.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 70.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 71.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 72.5 | 38% | 62% |
I would bet this under down to 69.5 yards.
Pick: Under 72.5 Rush Yards (-110) at DraftKings or FanDuel
