Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL player prop for Packers-Bears on Sunday Night Football. He has a 490-381-9 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props: Packers-Bears
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the ultimate boom-or-bust receiver, but Randall Cobb’s injury makes MVS more likely to "boom" on Sunday night — he should run a route on more than 80% of Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks and will be the quarterback's go-to target downfield.
The Bears' pass defense have faced the second-fewest pass attempts this season, but have allowed the 13th-most passing yards a game on attempts 20+ yards downfield. Looking even closer, they've also allowed the second-highest Deserved Catch% at a 85.7% rate on pass attempts 20+ yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions. This tells me the Bears tend to let pass-catchers get open downfield at a high rate, which should benefit MVS.
I’m projecting him to clear this number 58% of the time and would bet it up to 22.5 yards.
Pick: Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
