In search of the top NFL player props for Patriots-Colts on Saturday night?
By comparing projections created by our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner — which live in our Action Labs prop tool — to the props on PrizePicks, we identified two receiving overs offering value for this NFL Week 15 matchup.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Props For Patriots-Colts
Patriots WR Nelson Agholor Over 24.5 Rec Yards
Koerner's Projection: 33
Koerner's projection for Agholor gets a boost against zone, which the Colts play at fifth-highest rate in the NFL. The Patriots receiver has also cleared this number in seven of 13 games this year.
Colts WR Zach Pascal Over 20.5 Rec Yards
Koerner's Projection: 29.8
Bill Belichick is known for scheming against his opponent's best offensive player, so it's possible the Patriots try to take away the Colts' best wide receiver, Michael Pittman.
In addition to more potential targets with the focus on Pittman, another factor working in favor of Pascal's over is that he's done better against man, which the Pats play at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
What Are NFL Player Props?
Playing the "over" or "under" on a quarterback's passing yards, wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props, check out our Betting 101 series.
