Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, identifies his favorite NFL player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. Find his pick for Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football below.
Koerner has a 461-353-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props: Patriots-Falcons
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 12.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Stevenson is coming off a monster Week 10 performance in which he rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns while also chipping in four catches for 14 yards receiving.
With Damien Harris expected to return, I expect Stevenson to split work with Harris on early downs. However, with Brandon Bolden questionable, I could see Stevenson playing a bigger role in the passing game tonight — even if Bolden suits up. The rookie has flashed as a pass-catcher when given opportunities, and tonight would be a great time to give him more chances with Bolden dealing with a hip injury.
As of writing, I'm projecting Stevenson to see 30-35% routes run tonight (even if Bolden is active). Stevenson has seen an eye-popping 35% target share when running a route this season — it's an unsustainable rate, but it goes to show that we can typically bank on him seeing targets when he's in on a passing play.
Even if Bolden is active, I'm projecting a 58% chance of Stevenson going over this number. (I would set the line for this prop closer to 16.5 yards, for context.) If Bolden is ruled out, I would give Stevenson closer to a 70-75% chance of hitting this over.
If you're reading this before inactives are released, I would bet this over up to 15.5 yards because there's a 10-20% chance Bolden is ruled out. But even if you're reading this after inactives are released and Bolden is set to play, he could be at less than 100%, which would be added value to this over and I would still bet it up to 13.5 yards in that case.
But remember: Every yard in this short of a range counts — a lot — so be sure to shop for the best number.
Pick: Over 12.5 Rec Yards (-110) at FanDuel
