Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL props for Saturday's pair of playoff games: Raiders-Bengals and Patriots-Bills. He has a 530-418-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Saturday NFL Playoff Props
Emmanuel Sanders Under 24.5 Rec Yards
8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Sanders returns after a two-game absence due to a knee injury.
It’s unclear how much playing time he’ll see considering how well Gabriel Davis has played in his place, but I’m expecting both of them to run a route on about 60% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. That said, Sanders has been very inefficient over the second half of the season, and he hasn’t topped 30+ yards since Week 9. That means it’ll be tough for him to clear this number in limited playing time.
The Bills have also uncharacteristically leaned on the run over the past three games, ranking ninth in rushing rate over that stretch.
I’m projecting Sanders for closer to 20.5 yards, but considering every yard is crucial in a market like this, I wouldn't bet this any further.
Bet to: 24.5 yards
Josh Jacobs Under 3.5 Rec
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
Jacobs has seen his receiving usage drop-off ever since Jalen Richard returned to the lineup in Week 15.
In last week’s must-win game, Jacobs ran a route on 43% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks — his lowest rate since Week 9 — with Richard running the same exact rate. In fact, it was Richard who received every snap in the Raiders’ two-minute offense, which is the ideal time for a running back to rack up receptions.
Jacobs has been held under this number in four of five games when Richard has a routes run rate of 20%+. We should see that trend continue here as the Raiders lean on Jacobs as a runner (averaging 21 carries a game over the last four).
I’m projecting the under closer to -200.
Bet to: -160
