Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. Find his favorite prop for Ravens-Dolphins on Thursday Night Football below, followed by two bonus picks.
Koerner has a 451-344-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him to receive notifications each time he tracks a pick.
NFL Player Props: Ravens-Dolphins
Salvon Ahmed Under 1.5 Receptions (-145)
I realize this isn't the most exciting prop to root for, but it's certainly offering the best value for tonight's game.
With Malcolm Brown on IR, the Dolphins have been using Myles Gaskin as a workhorse back, with Ahmed's role unchanged as the change-of-pace back. Ahmed's routes run rate has been trending down the past three games (24%, 19%, 13%) as the Dolphins have been giving Gaskin more of the passing down work, along with Patrick Laird.
It will be difficult for him to see enough usage to get two or more receptions. I would consider a fair line for this prop to be closer to -200, and I would bet it down to -170.
Pick: Under 1.5 Receptions (-145) at BetMGM
Mike Gesicki Under 54.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Gesicki tends to be much more productive against zone coverage as opposed to man. The Ravens play man at the 6th highest rate, which means we should downgrade our expectations for Gesicki a tad. They may stick 6'2", physical CB Jimmy Smith on Gesicki which could slow him down. I'm expecting Jaylen Waddle (who is way more productive against man coverage) to have a huge game tonight at the expense of Gesicki. Would bet this down to 50.5.
Pick: Under 54.5 Rec Yards (-110) at FanDuel
Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
Lamar has gone over this number in 5 of 8 games this season, which makes this prop seem a bit too easy. He's coming off of a 21/120/0 game on the ground against the Vikings, so the Ravens may opt to dial back his rush attempts a bit here, which is why I'm projecting him closer to 11.5. I prefer attacking this market over his rushing yards (66.5) because I'm fairly close to that number. Keep in mind that kneel-downs count for this market and could end up being an "out" for this market.
Pick: Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (-130) at BetMGM
