Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals favorite NFL props for Saturday's Divisional Round playoff games. He has a 533-422-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
NFL Playoff Props
Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Rec Yards
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
The Bengals limited Mixon's receiving usage for much of the season, likely to keep him fresh for a potential playoff run. He topped a 60% routes run rate only twice between Weeks 1-15, but has topped it in each of the past three games, cashing in on the increased usage with receiving lines of 70, 40 and 28.
I'm projecting Mixon for closer to 26.5 yards against the Titans (see more of Koerner's projections in our Action Labs props tool).
Bet to: 21.5
Deebo Samuel Under 4.5 Receptions
8:15 p.m. ET kickoff
Since Week 10, the 49ers have been giving Samuel five or more rush attempts per game. He’s topped 5+ receptions in only two of nine games over that span. I expect them to continue giving him direct carries — at the expense of his receptions — for Saturday night's matchup.
FanDuel is offering this under at -104 odds as of writing, but I'm projecting the "fair odds" closer to -160.
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
