Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL player prop pick for every primetime game of 2021. He has a 422-321-5 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
NFL Props: Seahawks-Steelers
Chase Claypool Over 63.5 Rec Yards
Claypool has flashed massive upside over his first 20 career games, but he’s been fairly inconsistent when Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been healthy. Whenever either WR has missed time this season, though, Claypool has capitalized:
- Week 3 when Johnson was out: 9 catches, 96 yards, 0 TDs
- Week 5 when Smith-Schuster missed second half: 5 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD
With Smith-Schuster out for the season, Claypool's weekly floor and ceiling should rise.
Another encouraging sign was, once Smith-Schuster left last week's game, Claypool saw an increase in his slot usage. In Weeks 1-4, he lined up in the slot only 15% of the time. In Week 5, Claypool lined up in the slot 40% of the time, catching two targets for 77 yards and a touchdown from the slot.
I don’t think the market has adjusted his projection enough, especially against a Seattle defense that's allowed the second-most receiving yards to enemy wide receivers this season.
I’m projecting Claypool for closer to 70.5 and would bet this to 66.5 yards.
Pick: Over 63.5 Rec Yards (-110) at BetMGM
