Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player props for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Steelers and Chargers below. He has a 461-354-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
NFL Props: Steelers-Chargers
Najee Harris Under 31.5 Rec Yards (-115) & Under 4.5 Receptions (-130)
Harris erupted for a 14 catches and 102 scoreless receiving yards in Week 3, but that outlier performance has inflated his season stats, which is likely one reason there's so much value on his receiving unders tonight.
The Steelers' offensive line has improved significantly, allowing them to give Harris 20+ carries in five straight games. They should stick with that game plan tonight, considering Ben Roethlisberger will likely be rusty in his return and because the Chargers rank dead last in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run.
The Steelers have also been using Benny Snell and Kalen Ballage more on passing downs to give Harris a breather.
Harris has cleared 31.5 receiving yards in only three of nine games this season. It's also worth noting that the Chargers have yet to allow an opposing running back to clear 31.5 receiving yards all season.
I'm projecting Harris for 3.5 receptions and 25.5 receiving yards, so I'm going to double down and bet both of these props. I like his receiving yardage under down to 28.5 and would bet the under on his 4.5 receptions prop up to -160 juice.
Picks: Under 31.5 Rec Yards (-115) & Under 4.5 Receptions (-130) at BetMGM
