Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player props to bet for the trio of Thanksgiving Day games, including Bills-Saints. He has a 471-357-8 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow him for more picks.
Note that these lines move fast, so they could be stale by the time you're reading this, which is why we include his "bet to" threshold for each.
NFL Player Props For Thanksgiving
Stefon Diggs Under 79.5 Rec Yards (-115)
8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
Diggs will likely be covered by Marshon Lattimore for much of the game, leading Josh Allen to spread the ball around more to Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox.
The Saints are dealing with a plethora of injuries, so I don't think the Bills will have to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters. I expect Diggs to make plenty of big plays, but I'm projecting him closer to 70.5 for this game.
Bet to: Under 76.5 yards
Devin Singletary Under 25.5 Rush Yards (-110)
8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
I'm surprised to even see a Devin Singletary prop, considering head coach Sean McDermott implied that Matt Breida has earned more touches after having back-to-back solid games.
Due to the Bills having a very murky three-way running back committee in which Singletary could be third on the totem pole and their matchup against the No. 1 defense in Football Outsiders' run DVOA, I like the value offered on this under.
I'm projecting Singletary for closer to 20.5 yards, but his floor is much lower, given the uncertainty.
Bet to: Under 23.5 yards
D'Andre Swift Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
12:30 p.m. ET kickoff
The Lions run the ball at the highest rate in the league on early downs, when the in-game win probability is between 20-80% (a neutral game script)
The 0-9-1 Lions typically have to abandon the run early in most games due to trailing game scripts. However, they're only 3-point underdogs in this game, which means they should be a run-heavy offense for most of the game.
My model projects the Lions for 28.5 total rushing attempts, with about 60% of those going to Swift. Therefore, I’m projecting him closer to 16.7 rush attempts for this game.
Bet to: Over 15.5 (-130)
Darren Waller Under 69.5 Rec Yards (-115)
4:30 p.m. ET kickoff
My Darren Waller under 71.5 bet went up in flames this past Sunday as he went off for seven catches and 116 scoreless yards against the Bengals. Of course, betting against an elite tight end will make you look silly every once in a while. I'm going to risk looking silly again, as my numbers still show quite a bit of value on Waller to go under here.
I'm projecting him closer to 63.5 yards.
Bet to: Under 68.5
