Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Especially when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the Quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). So far in 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 53-39 for +20.8 units so far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank someone like Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings as he finished 2022 at +8.6 units for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five of six games when he was listed at plus money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting to throw an interception in Week 8, both with plus-money odds.
Buccaneers vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud
To Throw Interception (+160)
Yes, I lost on this bet last week but this is my new INT “White Whale.” It used to be Brock Purdy but since he’s thrown up on himself in the last couple of games, Stroud takes the mantle of the most elusive QB INT prop to pin down.
That being said, this is eventually going to come to a head for the rookie QB and I’m here for it in Week 9, especially since this opened at +185.
Although he’s only thrown one interception through seven games, Stroud has looked fantastic in some stretches and a bit inept in others. He leads the NFL in Bad Throw rate at 22.5% and ranks 29th in passes on target at 70.7%. My man Nick Giffen on Action's predictive analytics team has Stroud as the “luckiest” QB in the NFL for INT props in 2023 based on his bad ball rate that could be intercepted by defenders.
The Buccaneers defense has had its ups and downs this season, but its aggressive style has allowed it to snag seven interceptions this season, most recently off of Josh Allen in Week 8. With DT Vita Vea set to return, the secondary will likely be aggressive.
While Tampa Bay may get burned, it'll still likely have a few chances to get its hands on some Stroud throws. At these odds, I have to keep running this back.
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Chargers vs. Jets
Justin Herbert
To Throw Interception (+115)
I might like this bet more than Stroud. This one checks so many boxes, it’s too bad we have to wait until Monday to try and cash in on Justin Herbert to throw an interception against the Jets.
The Jets defense is the exact type I like to invest in because it gets after the quarterback, has a quality secondary and will be playing outdoors. The Jets defensive line is first in pressure rate at 29.2% but second last in blitzing. The latter is important because Herbert has historically carved up the blitz in his career, but this means the Jets can get in his face while keeping their elite secondary intact to cover the receivers.
Speaking of the secondary, CB Sauce Gardner and CB D.J. Reed are back healthy and should be able to contain the likes of WRs Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer. The Jets rank fourth in passing yards allowed per game and are fourth in interception rate per pass at 3.5%.
Even if they get beat from time to time, Herbert is going to need to be perfect to avoid having a ball tipped or intercepted. I’m banking on that he won’t be able to be perfect.
