NFL Referee Playoff Assignments: Wild Card Betting Trends
Okay, referees aren't going to alter this game for nefarious reasons. But there are particular tendencies and trends that bettors can glean based on data.
Thanks to our esteemed data guru Evan Abrams, we have distinct against the spread (ATS) and straight up trends for each referee crew in each Wild Card game this weekend.
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Browns vs. Texans
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Browns vs. Texans referee: Clay Martin
Referee Clay Martin has a 56-36 ATS record to favorites. $100 per game bettors blindly wagering on the favorite's spread in games with Martin as the ref have won about $1,600 over the last 20 seasons.
Meanwhile, Martin is also 53-38 ATS for the road team. Blind $100 per game bettors would be up $1,150 betting road spreads.
Both of these data points favor the Browns at -2.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Dolphins vs. Chiefs referee: Brad Rogers
In games with referee Brad Rogers, the Chiefs are 3-0 straight up. All three games have taken place since 2020.
Steelers vs. Bills
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -115 | 38 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 38 -110o / -110u | -525 |
Steelers vs. Bills referee: Carl Cheffers
With referee Carl Cheffers at the helm, Josh Allen is 7-3 straight up. But underdogs are also 138-111-5 ATS (55.4%) in games where Cheffers is the referee. Underdogs are .500 ATS or better in six straight seasons with Cheffers at referee.
But the most pertinent data point with Cheffers in regards to this game is on the total. Cheffers is 81-67 (55%) to the under since 2015. In the playoffs, it's even better: Cheffers is 11-2 (85%) to the under during the postseason.
The total for this game has moved from its open at 43 to its current mark at 34 because of the wind and snow. The wind is expected to gust at around 25 to 35 mph with snow in the forecast. It's the single-biggest move to a playoff total in the last 20 years.
Packers vs. Cowboys
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Packers vs. Cowboys referee: Ronald Tolbert
The Packers are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games with Ronald Torbert as the referee. Their only loss was their 2022 playoff game against the 49ers, when the Packers fell by three as big home favorites in the snow.
In the last four seasons, Torbert is 42-23-1 (65%) to the under. He's the most profitable referee among the 20 most prominent ones over that timespan. The aforementioned Cheffers is third. Bill Vinovich is second.
Rams vs. Lions
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 53 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 53 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Rams vs. Lions referee: Craig Wrolstad
The Rams have lost both their games with Craig Wrolstad as the referee.
In the four playoff games that Wrolstad has reffed, favorites are 4-0 ATS. These two factors point toward the Lions at -3.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 43 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Bucs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 43 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Eagles vs. Buccaneers referee: Adrian Hill
The Eagles are 2-0 straight up with Adrian Hill as the referee since 2021, while the 'Bucs are 0-2 straight up since 2020.
Hill has only officiated one playoff game – last year's Giants vs. Vikings game, in which the road underdog won straight up, 31-24.
