What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen, and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.
Be sure to subscribe to the Action Network YouTube channel, where our experts give out their picks on Action Island each week. If you missed this week's show, you can read about their picks below.
Browns vs. Broncos Parlay Tonight
- Devaughn Vele Under 3.5 Receptions
- Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions
- Jaleel McLaughlin 40+ Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +2000 (bet365)
Devaughn Vele Under 3.5 Receptions
Nick Giffen: Devaughn Vele sees a 10% reduction in targets per route against man coverage, and Cleveland plays man at the sixth-highest rate in the league.
He also sees a reduction in his target share against the blitz and against pressure in general. Well, the Browns are second in pressure and fifth in blitz frequency.
Josh Reynolds is also expected to return tonight, and while he shouldn't reduce Vele's snap nor his route-run rate, it may add a bit of extra competition for targets, especially against man coverage.
Bo Nix's completion rate under pressure is 40%. As I mentioned, Cleveland is No. 2 in pressure. The reason I'm going with the under on receptions here instead of receiving yards is because the Browns allow the highest aDOT in the league and Nix chucks it deep more under pressure.
Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions
Gilles Gallant: Bo Nix leads all NFL quarterbacks with 12 balls batted at the line of scrimmage.
The Browns are second in the NFL in pressure rate and fifth in blitz rate.
I expect Cleveland to get to Nix with some frequency tonight. That'll lead to rushed throws that could be batted in the air or just bad passed in general.
This is good value at plus money.
Jaleel McLaughlin 40+ Rushing Yards
Sean Koerner: The Broncos' running back situation has been like musical chairs pretty much all season, but it's been even worse lately.
They tend to give all three running backs looks early in the game and then ride the hot hand. I think this helps Jaleel McLaughlin because he's likely a lock to see a couple of early carries as a result.
But I also think he's the best bet to get the hot hand here.
The Browns' run defense has been vulnerable to outside runs this year, allowing the highest rushing yards over expected per attempt, per NextGenStats. They are more middle-of-the-pack when it comes to inside runs.
Both Javonte Williams and Audric Estime run inside at a high rate, while only Alvin Kamara runs outside the tackles at a higher rate than McLaughlin.
Since this is such a volatile situation, I'd rather just go for McLaughlin's upside and take the 40+ rushing yards here.
He likely needs to break a big run to get the hot hand, then would be able to build on it from there, giving him some sneaky upside in these alt markets.
