Before we start betting player props on a game-by-game basis, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon have dug into the season-long markets to find their favorite picks.
Koerner and Raybon are on three unders, two overs and one rookie to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Let's get straight into it.
NFL Season-Long Player Props
Gardner Minshew Under 2925.5 pass yds (-130)
Sean Koerner: This is essentially a prop for games started/played for Gardner Minshew, and I would say this line implies right around 13 games started/played.
It’s a tricky prop to project because there is a lot of uncertainty here. He was battling second-year QB Aidan O’Connell for the starting job, and head coach Antonio Pierce decided who would be the Week 1 starter with an audition in Week 2 of the preseason. Minshew won the battle but it seemed like it was a close decision, which means he might not have as long of a leash as your typical Week 1 starter. It sort of reminds me of the Jimmy Garoppolo situation in Las Vegas last year.
Minshew is coming off a pretty solid season that saw him start 13 games for the Colts and make the Pro Bowl, but he probably benefited from being in a solid offense under Shane Steichen.
A big concern for him is that he's popping in my expected interception model from last year. Minshew only threw nine interceptions but was expected to throw around 13, according to my model, which has been very predictive for either positive or negative regression for the following season. That means we could see his interception rate go up to a level that would get him benched.
Looking at the schedule, the Raiders have a Week 10 bye. Based on their projected win percentage, I project them to have won between 3.5-5.5 games at that point. WR Davante Adams has advocated for O'Connell to be the starting QB so if the Raiders are struggling, he could voice his frustration publicly or privately to increase the chances that O'Connell would get another shot. It also might make sense for Las Vegas to give the young QB another shot to see what they have in him as it sorts out its long-term plans at QB.
This line feels too aggressive. Minshew has a much lower floor and multiple ways to get there whether it’s poor play, injury or even through his top receiver advocating for a change. I think 2750.5 would be a fair price that sort of factors all of that risk in.
Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving TD (-130)
Chris Raybon: Dell caught seven touchdowns as a rookie last season despite missing six games and even with the arrival of Stefon Diggs, I still have him projected for a median of 6.0 TD catches.
What Dell loses in target share with the addition of Diggs, he gains in the form of less defensive attention. I happen to think Dell is every bit as good as Diggs and Nico Collins. Even if he takes a backseat as the WR3, he is a good bet to go over this line considering that he scored in 6-of-8 games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, and 4-of-6 with a snap rate between 60-80%.
History is also on Dell’s side: Since 2010, 14 wide receivers have caught exactly 7 TDs in Year 1, and that group averaged 6.3 TDs in Year 2, with 10-of-14 (71%) going over 4.5 and 8-of-14 (57%) going over 5.5.
After a tumultuous offseason that included recovering from a broken foot and catching a stray bullet, Dell stepped on the field in Week 1 of the preseason and scored a 34-yard TD with ease on his first and only target, because of course he did.
Dell is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He converted 37.5% of his red-zone looks into TDs but also scored on 4-of-14 targets that traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Especially with the elite C.J. Stroud at the helm, Dell is simply a touchdown waiting to happen anytime he steps on the field.
Blake Corum Most Rookie Rushing Yards (+500)
Sean Koerner: This is a fun market that I think is the best way to cash in on Blake Corum’s upside this season.
Yesterday, Sean McVay said that Kyren Williams is expected to return punts this year. Of course, everyone is starting to freak out, and you have people saying this means that Kyren is going to be in a full-blown committee with Corum — or even his backup. Others, though, are the Leslie Neilson “Everything in fine” GIF and saying this just means Williams may also add some punt return TDs to his workhorse workload.
I don’t even pretend to know what McVay is going to do anymore. I thought Williams was going to take over as the Rams' lead back in the second half of 2022, then I thought (with everyone else) McVay would stick with Cam Akers as the lead back. Welp, wrong again.
The whole point is that McVay is unpredictable. That uncertainty only helps Corum in a market like this, and I think he should be a co-favorite.
Panthers RB Jonathan Brooks is the current favorite, but he’s expected to miss at least the first four games — and maybe more. I think Brooks could be the Panthers' lead back in the second half of the season, but that’s not a given and his upside feels capped as a rookie.
Jayden Daniels has the highest floor because he is a QB with rushing upside who will start every game (when healthy). I think that means he should be the favorite.
Corum, though, at +500 seems like the best value because he has a very real path to seeing enough work to take this market down.
Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd or Braelon Allen could take this down if their team’s starting RB goes down for extended time this year, and that's the case for Corum, as well. The difference is that Corum has a more likely path than those three that doesn't involve injury luck.
Tony Pollard Under 5.5 Rushing TDs (-120)
Chris Raybon: Despite projecting Pollard for a 60-40 edge in carry split with Tyjae Spears, I’m projecting Pollard for only 4.7 rushing TDs.
Pollard has gone over this number in each of the past two seasons (six TDs on 252 carries in 2023 and nine TDs on 193 carries in 2022), but that came on a Dallas offense that led the league in points per game in 2023 (29.9) and ranked fourth in 2022 (27.5). He's now on a Titans offense that ranked 27th with 17.9 points per game last season.
Pollard’s career TD rate of 3.0% is average despite running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Titans offensive line ranks 30th at PFF heading into 2024.
Pollard has struggled inside the 5-yard line in his career, converting just 8-of-29 into TDs for a conversion rate of 27.6%. That's over 18 points below the league average of 45.8%
Alex Highsmith Over 7.75 sacks (-115)
Sean Koerner: Highsmith followed up a 12-sack season in 2022 with a disappointing seven last year. However, he was very unlucky not to have more. Highsmith's underlying data was elite as he ranked seventh in total pressures and third in “quick pressures,” according to NextGenStats, which are even more predictive when it comes to sacks. Only Micah Parson and Myles Garrett had more and were also the only two players with a faster average time to pressure.
Based on my expected sacks model, I had Highsmith closer to 11.5 expected sacks.
I think we see Highsmith bounce back with another 10+ sack season, and there is a ton of value on Over 7.75 right now. He’s also worth a flier at 100-1 to lead the league in sacks, especially if you don’t have access to this prop.
Lamar Jackson Under 5.5 Rushing TDs (-142)
Chris Raybon: I’m projecting 4.5 rushing TDs for Jackson, who has gone under 5.5 rushing TDs in each of the past three seasons with five in 2023, three in 2022 and two in 2021. Jackson played just 12 games in 2022 and 2021, but he still would not have gone over if he kept up his rushing TD pace and played all 17 games.
The only times that Jackson has cleared this line were his first two full years as the starter in 2019 and 2020 with seven rushing TDs in 15 games in each season. Back then, Jackson was averaging one carry per game inside the 10-yard line. But since 2021, he’s averaging just 0.73.
Jackson reportedly slimmed down to 200 pounds this offseason, which is 30 pounds lighter than 2022 and 15 pounds lighter than last season. That's great for his overall rushing efficiency, but it's not ideal around the goal line.
Also, Baltimore signed Derrick Henry, who is arguably the best goal-line back in the NFL. Henry's presence may cause Jackson’s rushing usage near the goal line to trend down even more.
