By God, how is it almost November already? Football weather is finally arriving, more and more quarterbacks are getting hurt and the World Series is practically here…yup, I guess it's almost November.
Though sharp bettors could take a couple of weeks off and watch Fear Fest on AMC (currently watching a Stephen King marathon whilst writing this), they're shockingly still getting down on NFL action. Here are the four games they've hit hardest this week.
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers
1 p.m. ET | CBS
One would imagine that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers would be getting some love at home against Derek Carr and the Raiders. One would be dead wrong, though.
Despite their 5-1 record, pros are fading the Cheeseheads at home, where Rodgers has historically thrived (50-29-3 ATS vs. 42-39-1 on the road).
The Raiders have shown some guts over the past couple of weeks, and if there's one thing sharps love, it's guts. Just kidding, it's numbers that have value — that's what sharps love.
Evidently, OAK +7, +6.5, +6, +5.5 and +5 have all had value, as the Raiders are down to +4.5 across the market. A few days back, I touched on this game in my early market report and thought that there'd be buyback on the Packers at -5.5. I suppose I was wrong. In fact, that's the exact number that we tracked a steam move on…
Sharp Angle: Raiders (moved from +7 to +4.5)
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
1 p.m. ET | CBS
What a game we have on our hands! Can't miss television!
If you said the Bills would be favored by 17 points in a game this season, people would have thought you were crazy. Perhaps just as crazy is the fact that the sharps are betting the over.
Miami is scoring less than 10 points per game on average, while Buffalo is allowing just 14. Then again, the Dolphins are allowing 36 points per game so it's quite possible Buffalo goes over the total on their own.
After opening at 39.5 and falling to 38.5 shortly afterwards, there's been five bet signals on the over. The under is getting some public support (55% of tickets), but the over is getting 80% of the money.
Often times, it's the strangest bets that the sharp bettors love. This is no exception.
Sharp Angle: Over (moved from 38.5 to 41)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Let the Ryan Tannehill era begin! After several years of teasing Titans fans and not covering spreads (42.4% cover rate), it's time for Marcus Mariota to ride the pine pony. This has the attention of professional bettors.
Both of these teams have disappointed to the tune of 2-4 records, but it's the potentially rejuvenated Titans team that the sharps like this week. After opening at a PK, the Titans are up to -2.5 behind four bet signals. Betting percentages also support the sharp action:
- Spread: 40% of bets, 56% of dollars
- Moneyline: 38% of bets, 74% of dollars
I don't really expect this line to reach the key number of three, but if it does, it'll likely be met with Chargers buyback.
Sharp Angle: Titans (moved from PK to -2.5)
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
After beating the Cowboys 12-10 and the Jaguars 13-6, this is the type of game that Teddy Bridgewater has quickly become accustomed to winning. The total reads just 37, which ties it for the lowest of the season, but the pros are fading Bridgewater in what shapes up to be another low-scoring affair.
After opening at -4, everyone was backing New Orleans. Over the first couple of days, more than 70% of bets and dollars pushed the Saints down to the key number of +3. Since then, the turn tables….have…turned.
The Saints remain popular, getting 64% of bets, but a steady cash flow on Chicago (up to 54% now) has pushed their line back up to the opening number of -4.
Bridgewater's Saints have had a knack for winning these types of games, but this is exactly the kind of game the Bears love, too.
Sharp Angle: Bears (moved from -3 to -4)
