Week 12 has attracted plenty of unusual action from professional bettors. Will Broncos-Bills really finish under 35 points? Should you consider the under in Saints-Panthers despite the game being played in the Superdome?
We've got it all covered in our Week 12 Sharp Report.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Here we have a game with the lowest opening total (36.5) since the Eisenhower administration. Actually it's just the lowest total of the season, but still low nonetheless.
Buffalo, at ~345 yards and ~21 points per game has a middling offense, faces Denver (~320, ~17). Both teams' defenses rank in the top-5 in yards per game allowed, though, and I doubt many folks are expecting a shootout.
Or are they…
Seventy-one percent of bets are on the over, which is fairly shocking. I suppose they just saw the low number and figured that it was the over or nothing. Not many people have the guts to take such a low under. There was even sharp action on the over early in the week, which, in combination with the public support, caused the total to rise up to 38.5.
Ever since then, the pros have hopped on the under.
Four consecutive Bet Signals on the under have caused the number to fall back to 37/37.5 around the market.
There are likely two reasons for this.
- The line got too high and it was time for buyback
- It's going to be breezy in Buffalo
With 15 mph winds, the Brandon and Kyle Allen are going to have more trouble throwing a football accurately than they usually do, which would favor the under. It could also cause both teams to run the ball more than they typically would, which would eat up more clock and also favor the under.
Do you need any other reasons?
Sharp Angle: Under 37
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
With Miami taking up the tanking limelight early in the season, Cincinnati has sort of gotten off easy for what has been a terrible season. Still with zero wins, two fewer than those horrendous Dolphins, and now featuring Ryan Finley at QB, the Bengals are at serious risk of going 0-16.
Guess who the sharps like in this game?
Betting percentages for this game are actually fairly split, with Pittsburgh getting the slight majority of tickets. It's not like the Steelers have won over the entire betting public enough to take them as a lofty road favorite.
After opening at -6, the Steelers did get enough early support from pros and joes to reach the key number of -7. Of course, it was at this point when sharps decided to take the hapless, winless, hopeless Bengals.
The line has since dropped back down to 6.5, a line that the Bengals have not really drawn much professional action at — all three Bet Signals triggered on Cincy have been at +7. It wouldn't be a mortal sin to take the Bengals at +6.5, but keep in mind that the truly sharp play is +7.
Sharp Angle: Bengals (moved from +7 to +6.5)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
With three losses in their past four games, the Panthers' playoff hopes in a crowded NFC have fallen fast. A double-digit dog this week, the chances are rather high that they fall to 5-6 on Sunday.
Even at +10, the Panthers haven't really attracted much sharp action. The total is a different story, though.
While the windy weather will be impacting several games across the nation, the Panthers and Saints will be playing … indoors! The perfect place to score points! Yet, sharps are taking the under because they live on the wild side.
This sucker opened at 48, was steamed at 47 and has seen a steady flow of under cash that has dropped it all the way down to 45.5. Tickets are split, but the under is commanding 81% of the money.
With 2.5 points already lopped off this total, I'd be a little surprised if it fell even more. I'd actually bet on the next wave of sharp action (if there is one) to be in the form of buyback on the over rather than the under again.
Sharp Angle: Under (fell from 48 to 45.5)
