It's Week 9 already? It's November already?
No time for dilly-dallying, though. As Saul Goodman would say, let's get down to brass tacks and see how sharp bettors are playing the Week 9 slate.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1 p.m. ET | CBS
A few months ago, this was shaping up to be a showdown between Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. Now we have Jacoby Brissett and Mason Rudolph, though Brissett and the Colts have been impressive all season.
At 5-2, Indy leads the AFC South and has been kind to spread bettors, too, going 4-2-1 ATS thus far. It's no surprise that the Colts are getting 70% of spread bets against Rudolph's Steelers. The spread has been stuck right around a pick 'em, with some books favoring Indy by a point and others favoring Pitt by a point. The over/under, on the other hand, has seen definitive, market-wide movement thanks to sharp action.
After re-opening at 43.5 on Tuesday morning following the Steelers' Monday game vs. Miami, this total fell to 43 within an hour. The initial move didn't immediately lead to much, but on Friday activity picked back up.
The line fell to 42.5 that morning and to 41.5 shortly before noon eastern. Then, this news came through at 1:33 p.m. ET.
Official: T.Y. Hilton is OUT for Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh.
Will be just the sixth game Hilton’s missed in his eight-year career. Colts are 0-5 in those games.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) November 1, 2019
The line has since fallen to 40.5 at most books and an even 40 at a handful of others. Altogether, we've tracked four steam moves on the under — which is also getting 89% of the money.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 43.5 to 40.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Another game, another under getting sharp action.
Both of these fringe contenders in the NFC need a win this week to keep their playoff hopes viable, but alas, only one win is awarded each game. We should expect to see a hard-fought game and sharps are expecting it to be a low-scoring one at that.
Much like the Colts-Steelers game, this total has fallen three points since opening — from 44 to 41. Two steam moves hit the under at 43, but money (78%) has continued flowing in to help drop this sucker down even more.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 44 to 41) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
This line and line movement surprise me, but sometimes the sharps do surprising things.
The Seahawks opened as 6.5-point home favorites, and I figured initial action on the Seahawks would push it up to the key number of seven. I was wrong, though, as there was no initial action on Seattle and the line hasn't touched seven all week.
Instead, big bucks on the Bucs have pushed the line down to +5 across the market. Tampa is getting 44% of the tickets, but 70% of the money. There was also a steam move on Tampa at +5.5.
Perhaps more surprising than the line movement is public betting percentages. Seattle (6-2) is getting just 56% of the bets against the Bucs (2-5) and a quarterback who has thrown seven picks over the past two weeks. I would have definitely predicted Seattle getting 70+% of tickets with a sub-7 spread, but what can ya do?
Sharp Angle: Bucs (moved from +6.5 to +5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
