Two things Saturdays are for:
- Watching college football
- Preparing to bet on the NFL on Sunday
Let me know if I missed anything.
Prepping for Sunday bets is a long process — at least for me. I mean, hell, we're about into the triple digits of Week 1 betting preview posts at this point. But perhaps my favorite way to prepare is by seeking out sharp action.
With that said, here are the plays that professional bettors are making for the NFL's opening weekend.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart-money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
>> All odds as of Saturday at 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
1 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Browns +4.5
After "Hard-Knocks" turned the Browns into the darlings of the league, I was so looking forward to getting a chance to fade them for a change this season. That's not going to be the case in Week 1, however, as the public is still taking the anti-Browns route against the Steelers.
Despite the only 38% of bettors behind Cleveland, this line has gone from +6 to +4.5 behind sharp action on the Browns. They've triggered six steam moves and have drawn 52% of dollars causing the line move.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
1 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Giants +3
Bettors are split down the middle on this game, as each side has drawn 50% of tickets. The G-Men have moved from +3.5 to +3 at Pinnacle, however, as sharps have hit them hard.
They've drawn 66% of the money wagered — meaning bigger, sharper wagers are behind them — and have triggered four steam moves.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
1 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over 48
As with the case above, this line has bettors split down the middle. Fifty-one percent of bettors like the over, but they account for 84% of dollars wagered. Smart money has caused this total to rise two points from its opening number, as sharps have triggered four steam moves on the over.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
4:25 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over 42.5
The market is a bit erratic with this total. It ranges from 41.5 to 43 depending on the book you're using, but the consensus seems to be 42.5, which is a half-point rise from its opening number.
That's significant considering that only 48% of bettors like the over, meaning the line change almost has to be a result of sharp action. That 48% accounts for 60% of dollars wagered, which is an indication that sharper wagers are backing a high-scoring affair.
The ranging total across the market may also be a sign of sharp action, as certain books with more sharp customers could have more liability on the over, hence a higher line.
Pinnacle is often considered to be the sharpest of the offshore books, and it's also the one posting a 43.
