Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers. Not a bad group of quarterbacks to watch on Sunday of the Divisional Round.
The entertainment value is high and you can guarantee there are plenty of casual bettors sitting back on their couches with a few bucks on each game to make things interesting. Also sitting back on their couches (I assume they have couches) are sharp bettors, who are taking the opportunity to find value in these super heavily-bet games.
Here's how they're impacting odds for both Sunday affairs.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
3:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Texans-Chiefs, or as some see it — Watson-Mahomes. The latter already has an MVP to his name, and many believe the former may add one to his trophy case over the next few seasons.
One thing that certainly helps out Watson and the Texans' chances will be the presence of Will Fuller V, who has historically made a huge difference for Watson.
So does that mean sharps are on the Texans?
While the Texans have seen some sharp activity at books that reached +10, there really hasn't been much pro action on the spread after lines settled in last Sunday night.
It's the over that has seen big bets steadily rolling in on it all week. After opening at 48.5/49, this total is up to 51.5 across the market.
More than 80% of the early money helped drive the total up to 51 by Monday night. Though things have been relatively quiet since then, the total was bumped up to its new high of 51.5 on Saturday morning.
Sharp Angle: Over (moved from 49 to 51.5)
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Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
6:40 p.m. ET | FOX
On Friday afternoon, I was looking ahead to see where the sharp action was on each of this weekend's games. At the time, the over for this game was the clear sharp angle, as two Bet Signals helped move the total from 45.5 to 47 even though it was getting less than 40% of tickets.
However, the tables turned on Saturday morning. With snowy conditions in the forecast, a Steam Move struck the under, which undid all of that prior sharp action on the over.
After peaking at 47, this weather-related buyback dropped the line right back down to its low point of 45.5.
Should the forecast be impacting the total this much? Well, cold temperatures on their own do not lead to a decrease in scoring, as we've historically seen overs cash at a high rate in games with below-freezing temps.
It's tough to quantify how much of an impact snow has, as it can have so many variables that come along with it. The forecast doesn't appear too bad at Lambeau, but it's bad enough that sharps saw value in the under at 47.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this total see sharp action on either side as we approach gametime. If it's clear that snow won't factor into the game, the total might return to the 46.5/47 range. However, if the forecast calls for more of a steady snowfall throughout the game, we could see it head toward the key number of 44 for the first time all week.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 47 to 45.5)
