It's been a whirlwind NFL season for the wiseguys. Over the first five weeks, contrarians stacked bigly as teams getting less than 50% of bets went 46-29 (61.3%) against the spread.
Then from Weeks 6 to 9, sharps and sportsbooks were taken to the woodshed as the public went on an epic tear with teams that had less than 50% of bets going a putrid 17-37 (31.5%) ATS.
But in Week 10, regression hit and Goodfellas who stayed the course bounced back, with teams receiving less than 50% of bets going 8-4 (66.7%) ATS. Sharps hope to see more of the same this Sunday.
By using our betting tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL game. Below are the three matchups they're focusing on in Week 11.
>> All odds as of Saturday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
- Sharp angle: Lions(+4.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Panthers boast an impressive 6-3 record (but only 1-3 on the road), while Matt Patricia's Lions have lost three in a row to drop to 3-6. The public sees a short spread and both teams' records, and that's all they need to know. Cam Newton and the Panthers all day long.
But sharps see a possible trap game.
The line opened at Carolina -3.5. Heavy public betting — with 81% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here) — pushed the Panthers to -4.5. That's when wiseguys pounced on the home dog at an artificially inflated price.
Pros across the offshore market got down on Detroit +4 and +4.5, triggering six different steam and reverse line moves.
This is the most lopsided game of the week. With the Lions only getting 19% of spread bets, they fit the vaunted Sports Insights' 80/20 rule: Since 2003, teams getting 20% or less bets have gone 55% ATS.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Sharp angle: Jaguars (+6 to +5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS
The Jaguars are a dumpster fire. After winning their Week 2 Super Bowl against the Pats, Jacksonville has lost six of its past seven games to drop to 3-6 overall. Meanwhile, the Steelers have ripped off five straight to improve to 6-2-1.
The public wants nothing to do with the Jags, but sharps see value and a potential let-down spot for Big Ben and the road favorites.
Pittsburgh opened at -5 and moved to -6 behind 69% of spread bets. Once the line reached the key number of 6, pros hammered the Jags +6, triggering five separate steam and reverse line moves. This overload of sharp action dropped the line back to the original opener of 5.
Jacksonville is only getting 31% of bets but 56% of dollars– a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy that signals big smart money in the Jaguars' favor. They also match a profitable Bet Labs PRO system: Fade Streaks NFL Spread (56.6% ATS, 9.2% ROI since 2003).
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
- Sharp angle: Eagles (+9 to +7.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Saints (8-1) are the hottest team in football. Who in their right mind would bet against them at home in the Superdome?
Wiseguys, that's who.
New Orleans opened as a 9-point favorite. Sharps immediately pounced on the Eagles +9. This heavy smart money caused market-wide reverse line movement, forcing the books to drop the Eagles from +9 to +7.5.
The Eagles are getting only 39% of bets but a whopping 72% of dollars. This indicates big sharp wagers buying low on the defending champs, with five dollar Average Joes loading up on Drew Brees and the Saints.
The Eagles also fit the same Bet Labs PRO system as the Jags: Fade Streaks NFL Spread (56.6% ATS, 9.2% ROI since 2003).
