Chris Raybon, a senior NFL and fantasy football analyst, highlights his favorite Week 13 NFL picks below. He has a 395-298-19 (57.0%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Week 14 NFL Bets
Titans at Jaguars
If the Titans know how to do one thing, it is score, which is great news for the over against a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Titans also rank in the bottom five in DVOA and could be vulnerable to a pesky Jags team that has scored 25 or more points in four of their last six games.
These teams have combined for 60-plus points in both meetings since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback for Tennessee, which should not be surprising. The over has been an auto-bet in the Tannehill era, covering at an 84% clip by an average of more than a touchdown per game.
I like this up to 53.
Jets at Seahawks
After getting stymied on offense by underrated defensive coordinator Patrick Graham in a 17-12 upset loss to the Giants last week, the Seahawks are in a great bounce-back spot. Per our Action Labs data, Seattle is 25-13-4 off a loss under Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson at quarterback, covering by an average of 4.15 points per game.
And while the Seahawks are in a bounce-back spot, the Jets are in danger of a letdown after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last week. An already weak Jets roster will be without emerging rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims (personal), their most explosive player. In addition to Mims, Sam Darnold may also be without his favorite target, Jamison Crowder (calf), who was a late-week addition to the injury report. Greg Van Wroten (toe), who Pro Football Focus grades as the Jets’ best pass-blocking offensive lineman, has already been ruled out.
The Seahawks' defense was a sieve earlier in the season but is allowing just 19.5 points per game over the past four weeks. Safety Jamal Adams (revenge game alert) and defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap have bolstered Seattle’s pass rush in a major way, notching a combined 11.5 sacks in just 13 combined games played.
On defense, head coach Adam Gase has always struggled to get his teams to show up on the road when the task looks daunting, going 5-18 (22%) against the spread (ATS) and failing to cover by nearly a touchdown per game on the road when the opponent is favored by 5.5 or more.
I project this line as Seahawks -16.5 and would bet them up to -15.
Falcons at Chargers
The Falcons have been a different team since firing head coach Dan Quinn:
- With Quinn: 32.2 points allowed, -7.8 point differential
- Without Quinn: 20.1 points allowed, +6.9 point differential
Interim coach Raheem Morris has done an excellent job with Atlanta's defense, and he has ample film to draw from in terms of how to slow down Justin Herbert, who has struggled in losses to the Dolphins, Bills and Patriots over the past month.
And while we can no longer bet against an organizational hazard like Quinn, we can still bet against Anthony Lynn, who I like to call D’Anthony Quinn. Per our Action Labs data, Lynn is just 5-14 ATS at home since the start of 2018.
I loved the Falcons two weeks ago coming off a loss to the Saints, and here we are again. Despite a loss to New Orleans being far from something to be ashamed of throughout the Sean Payton area, recency bias has tended to lead to value on the Falcons in this situation:
I like the Falcons up to -2.5.
Steelers at Bills
As my Action Network NFL Podcast co-host likes to put, Mike Tomlin is a “rah rah” coach. Tomlin does his best work when he has something to yell at his team about. It’s no surprise, then, that under Tomlin, the Steelers have been a field goal better ATS in situations in which they are either an underdog, or coming off a loss.
After blowing a 14-3 second-quarter lead to lose their first game of the season, the Steelers check both boxes for this contest. Pittsburgh was never as good as its previously undefeated record, but I still have this game projected with the Steelers as a slight favorite.
I like Pittsburgh down to a pick’em.
