The end of the NFL regular season is approaching quickly. There are only two weeks left and eight of the 12 playoff spots have been claimed.
The pool of potential Super Bowl champions is dwindling. At PointsBet, only 17 teams have odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
The Ravens (+210), Saints (+550) and 49ers (+550) are the favorites. The Chiefs (+700), Patriots (+700) and Seahawks (+800) are the only other squads with better than +1000 odds to win it all.
Odds as of Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Is there value betting one of these favorites or does a longshot have a chance to become a Super Bowl winner?
We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule to determine the most likely playoff teams.
By comparing our model to the betting odds at PointsBet, we have found a longshot bet worth placing before Week 16 kicks off.
Super Bowl 54 Futures Odds, Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings
- Current odds: +2500, Implied Probability: 3.8%
- Vikings win Super Bowl: 6.1% of the time
The Vikings are a longshot to win the Super Bowl for a few reasons. First, they haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, but Minnesota can punch its ticket with a win this week as a 4.5-point favorite against Green Bay or a Rams loss.
The other factor working against the Vikings is that they will likely play on the road throughout the postseason, beginning as a 6-seed in the Wild Card Round against the Saints. There is, however, an outside shot that the team wins the NFC North if the Vikings win out and the Packers lose out.
While Kirk Cousins & Co. winning the division is unlikely (12.2% according to our model), they are bascially locks to make the playoffs per our projections (97.9%).
We feel good about placing this bet because we know are getting a playoff team at a good number. History has shown that Wild Card teams can make Super Bowl runs, and this isn’t your typical 6-seed.
Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota seventh overall in team efficiency and The Action Network power ratings make the Vikings the sixth-best team. Mike Zimmer’s team is well-rounded as one of two squads that ranks in the top seven in offensive and defensive DVOA — the Ravens are the other.
Perhaps the greatest factor in placing this wager is the improved play from the team’s quarterback. In the Vikings' past 10 games, Cousins has thrown for 2,745 yards, 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He has a passer rating of 118.1 and is averaging 8.74 yards per attempt.
Cousins is peaking at the right time and oddsmakers are undervaluing Minnesota. With a 6.1% chance to win it all, the Vikings' Super Bowl odds should be closer to +1500 instead of +2500.
