Super Bowl Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
The matchup for Super Bowl LIX is set. We have Eagles and Chiefs, Volume II. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going for a three-peat, while the Eagles have revenge on their mind.
This is the first version of this article. A more complete second version will be live during Super Bowl week, including props, Gatorade, the National Anthem, and much more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know for the Super Bowl.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Monday, Jan. 27, at 12 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
We Meet Again
Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl
The Chiefs vs. Eagles this year will mark just the second time in NFL history that the same teams have met in the Super Bowl twice in a 3-year stretch. The Bills and Cowboys also did so in 1992-1993.
The Grim Reaper
The Mahomes Challenge
When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him. In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 44-6 SU in that spot in November or later. In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 30-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Mahomes has trailed in the 4th quarter or OT in 9 total playoff games. He has won six of those games and forced overtime in two of those games.
Mahomes is 17-3 SU (85%) in his playoff career. His 85% win pct is 2nd-best minimum 10 starts since 1950, behind just Bart Starr at 9-1 SU.
Coaching Matters
Full Prep
Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni will be the 5th head coach rematch in a Super Bowl all-time. The head coach who won the first meeting straight up also won the second meeting in all four prior instances. That includes Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan last year in Super Bowl LVIII.
Big Numbers
Eagles Breaking Records
Eagles scored 55 points in the Conference Championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only three teams have scored more than 45 pts in the Conference Championship:
1990-91 Bills — who lost the Super Bowl
2015-16 Panthers — who lost the Super Bowl.
2024-25 Eagles
Teams to score 40+ points in the Conference Championship are 3-7 SU in the Super Bowl.
The Rest Difference
Time Off
The Chiefs had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t enter the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 4-12 SU and 2-13-1 ATS.
Tough Spot
Mahomes vs. Fangio
Vic Fangio-coached defenses have faced Patrick Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, and twice with the Dolphins. They are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS vs. Chiefs. Mahomes has 10 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp. pct.
Saquon's Quest
Barkley vs. History
Saquon Barkley had a rushing yard total initially rush 130.5 in the Conference Championship, which at that mark was the highest we’ve ever seen. He closed around 125 and finished with 118 yards going under.
In the Super Bowl, his rushing line opened about 110.5 and is up to 115.5 in the market. How hard is it to get to say 120 rushing yards in the Super Bowl?
It hasn't been done since Michael Pittman in 2003. The only time since Terrell Davis did in 1998, the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP.
Super Bowl Primer: Early Edition
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➤Underdogs had their way in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, while the favorites came through in the Conference Championship.
The underdogs were 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS entering the Conference Championship and then the favorites went 2-0 SU/ATS with the Eagles and Chiefs. Favorites officially went 0-4 ATS on the closing line in the Divisional Round — just the third time that has happened since the merger in 1970 and the first time since 2007.
We’re just coming off a regular season to remember for favorites — the best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024 with a 195-77 SU record (71.7%), the 3rd-best season since 1980. Since 2017, underdogs in the playoffs are now 59-39 ATS (60%) with a 17% ROI.
➤Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has always come from the top 8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs, including from the top 6 in each of the past 11 seasons. The last team to win outside the top 6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens. Here were the top 6 in odds this year: Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, and Vikings.
➤Teams leading at the half in this year's NFL playoffs are 4-7 against the second-half spread, with those teams going .500 2H ATS or worse for three straight playoffs. Plus, teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 21-32-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years.
Super Bowl History
+ Super Bowl favorites are 36-22 SU and 27-29-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl underdogs are 10-7 SU in the last 17 Super Bowls, including 12-5 ATS.
+ The over is 28-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1). The under is 11-10 in the last 21 Super Bowls.
+ Super Bowl winners are 49-7-2 ATS (88%). The Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread in 2022, which was the first time that happened since the 2009 Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or fewer points are 30-1 ATS. Super Bowl winners with a spread of four or fewer are 23-0 ATS, with 11 favorites and 12 underdogs winning straight-up.
+ Public sides are 11-10 SU and ATS in the Super Bowl since 2004. Mahomes has played one Super Bowl without public support on the spread, Super Bowl 57 vs. Eagles.
+ This is poised to be the 17th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.
+ A safety hasn’t occurred in ten straight Super Bowls, but one did in three straight before that.
+ The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is three points, which has happened nine times. The next closest is four points (six times).
➤Ron Torbert will be the Super Bowl referee this year.
- This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl, he was the main official for Rams-Bengals back in 2021-22. The game only had six combined penalties between both teams, the lowest combined number in a Super Bowl since 1999.
- When it comes to total penalties called overall though, Torbert has been among the highest of officials lately. Of 17 head officials, Torbert has the 3rd-most penalties called this year and last year. Last two seasons, Torbert has called 94 offensive holding penalties, he’s top-4 in total offensive holds in both seasons.
- Torbert’s games tend to lean toward the favorite. Last decade, his games were 76.1% SU to the favorite, with a $100 bettor up $1,772 taking each of those games, the highest profit total for any referee in that span. Against the spread, favorites with Torbert are 90-71-2 ATS (56%) in the last decade, also the best of any official. This season, favorites went 13-4 SU and ATS in Torbert officiated games. Favorites have won 11+ games SU in all 11 of his seasons since Torbert started officiating, going 38-12 SU last three seasons.
- In Torbert officiated games, Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 SU and ATS, including the 2022-23 playoff game vs. Bengals where they closed -2 and won 23-20.
The Chiefs' Historic Super Bowl Success
➤ The Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. KC then entered this season also as favorites, listed at +500. The last team to win back-to-back titles, both as the preseason betting favorite, was the 1988-89 49ers. In the Wild Card era since 1990, the preseason Super Bowl favorite has won the title six times:
2023 Chiefs
2018 & 2016 Patriots
2006 Colts
1994 49ers
1993 Cowboys
The Chiefs were the 4th team to win two straight titles and make the Conference Championship for a third – and the first to make the Super Bowl for a third straight year. The 1994 Cowboys, 1990 49ers, and 1976 Steelers all didn’t make it that third season.
Mahomes' Neutral-Site Dominance
➤ Mahomes has played five neutral site games in his career, he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.7 points per game – three Super Bowls and two international games against the Chargers and Dolphins. The Chiefs have scored 21 points or more in all four neutral games.
Mahomes' Late-Season Home Field Brilliance
➤ When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him. In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 SU in-home or neutral-site games, with his losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 44-6 SU in that spot in November or later.
In the playoffs, Mahomes is 8-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG.
In-home games in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 24-2 SU in his career – his losses were to Philip Rivers in 2018 and Tom Brady in the 2019 playoffs. Mahomes has won 21 consecutive games outright since that loss to Brady in the playoffs.
Post-Allen Playoff Patterns
➤ Patrick Mahomes has taken down Josh Allen in the playoffs for a 4th time. In his career, he is just 1-2 SU in the playoffs the game after beating Allen in the playoffs.
Mahomes' Success On Extended Rest
➤ On extended rest, Mahomes is 33-7 SU, 20-19-1 ATS during the season, and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 39-8 SU and 25-21-1 ATS.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 30-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Andy Reid's Mastery With Extra Time
➤ The Super Bowl historically has a two-week gap between the Conference Championship and the big game. For Andy Reid, that has always been an advantage across his career.
In just Week 1, Reid is 17-9 SU as a head coach. When looking at his teams when playing on 13+ days rest outside of Week 1, which is typically the normal bye week, his teams are 34-7 SU, including 29-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks. His losses were against the Eagles last season and his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots.
Chiefs’ Bounce Back After Losses
➤ The Chiefs lost to the Bills in their previous matchup. Since 2019, the Chiefs are 25-7 SU after losing to their current opponent in their last meeting.
Mahomes has closed at -3 or shorter, or as an underdog, vs. a team KC lost to in their last matchup; he is 10-3 ATS, with losses to Allen and Burrow in the regular season and Brady in the playoffs.
Small Favorite Or Underdog Mahomes
➤ As a small favorite or an underdog, Mahomes is tough to beat. As a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, he is 28-9-1 ATS. In a 6-point teaser, he’s 32-6 in that spot and 36-2 in a 10-point tease.
Chiefs' Second-Half Under Trend
➤ Over the last two seasons, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 29-11 (73%), going under the total in that 2H by over 4 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Turnover Battle And Chiefs’ Success
➤ The Chiefs were the only winning team in the Divisional Round and the Conference Championship to not win the turnover battle.
When the Chiefs get even or win the turnover battle since 2018, they are 82-10 SU and 56-35-1 ATS. When they lose the TO battle, they are still 25-19-1 SU, but 13-28-3 ATS.
Best SU win pct since 2018 when losing TO battle:
Chiefs: 56%
Bills: 41%
Rams: 38%
Chiefs’ Dominance With Early Leads
➤ When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat.
KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
Eagles Enter Super Bowl With Momentum
➤ The Eagles have won six straight games now entering the Super Bowl. Overall, teams entering the Super Bowl on a 5+ game SU win streak are 9-6 ATS since the 2003 season. More importantly, when their opponent isn’t on a 5+ game SU win streak entering the Super Bowl, those streaking teams are 6-3 ATS – with them covering four in a row:
2024 Chiefs
2023 Chiefs
2021 Bucs
2020 Chiefs
Eagles Face Rare Road Test
➤ This is the first time the Eagles will play a game away from Lincoln Financial Field since Week 16 – December 22nd, against the Commanders. Eagles this season become only the 2nd team to play three home playoff games entering a Super Bowl in the same season (excluding the 1982 strike), joining the 2021 Chiefs, who lost to the Bengals in the AFC Championship.
The 2021 Rams are the only other team to have three home playoff games (excluding the 1982 strike) in a single postseason and they ended up winning it all against those same Bengals.
Eagles' Unusual Home Stretch Before Super Bowl
➤ Eagles have played five straight home games before now having to hit the road to play the Super Bowl, that is the most consecutive home games entering a Super Bowl for any team since the 1976-77 Raiders, who also had a 5-game streak (Raiders beat Vikings in the Super Bowl).
Saquon's Record-Chasing Playoffs
➤ Saquon Barkley had a rushing yard total initially rush 130.5 in the Conference Championship, which at that mark was the highest we’ve ever seen. He closed around 125 and finished with 118 yards going under.
Most rushing yards in a season including playoffs — Saquon is 30 yards shy of the record by Terrell Davis in 1998.
In addition, Saquon is 169 rush yards away from the most in a single playoff by John Riggins (610) in 1982.
Goedert’s Playoff Receptions Streak
➤ Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in receptions in the Conference Championship with 7 and he had 85 total receiving yards. Goedert has now gone over his receptions prop in nine straight playoff games.
With 4 receptions in the Super Bowl, Goedert would join this list of players with 4+ receptions in 10 straight playoff games since the merger: Kelce, Edelman, Welker, Tyreek, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice – only Travis Kelce has done it as a tight end.
Hurts' Home Playoff Dominance
➤ Jalen Hurts has played five home games in the playoffs, and he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Away from home in the playoffs, Hurts is 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13.2 PPG in those matchups.
Scoring First Is Key For Eagles
➤ The Eagles have scored first in 7 straight games. A lead is important to Philly. Under Nick Sirianni, they are 53-23 SU (70%) overall. When they lead by 7+ points at any point in the game, they are 46-12 SU (79%).
Hurts’ ATS Trends On The Road
➤ Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 36-32-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-1 ATS on the road or neutral field.
With a spread of 4 points or less either way, he is 13-9 ATS road/neutral, and 9-4 ATS over the last two seasons.
Eagles' Red Zone Perfection
➤ In the Conference Championship, the Eagles went a perfect 7-of-7 in the red zone.
The red zone had been an issue for the Eagles. They were 13th in red zone percentage during the regular season, but they were 1-6 in the playoffs entering the Conference Championship.
Since 2002, teams to score 5+ red zone touchdowns in the playoffs, are just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS in their next game.
Eagles Shine In Second Halves
➤ The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-7 against the third quarter spread and 13-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 26-14 in those quarters in the second half.
Eagles Dominate Turnover Battle
➤ The Eagles are winning the turnover battle 10-0 so far in the playoffs through three games, and over their last five games, they are winning the turnover battle 15-0.
The only other team to even have a 5-game turnover-less streak and play in the Super Bowl was the 2021-22 Bengals. The 2016-17 Falcons had a streak of 4 straight games without a turnover entering the Super Bowl; they won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl but lost to the Patriots.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Chiefs enter the Super Bowl 17-2 SU. Eagles are 17-3 SU. A slight homefield advantage gives KC the bump here, which means historically, the Eagles have the edge.
Matches: PHI
System: Patrick Mahomes has played 15 games inside of a dome according to Bet Labs, he is 14-1 SU.
Matches: KC
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System: Tough for playoff teams to hold a lead at the half.
Matches: N/A
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