If your team didn't make the playoffs or you're not quite convinced but want a piece of the futures action with the biggest games of the season coming up quickly, our experts are here to help.
The league is a bit top-heavy this season. There are three teams that most experts would pick to come out of the AFC, while there's a clear favorite in the NFC. Our experts took those three AFC teams in the first four picks, but the Lions, who are the favorite to hoist their first ever Lombardi Trophy this season, weren't the first NFC team off the board.
Let's see which teams our experts selected in our Super Bowl picks draft.
NFL Super Bowl Futures Picks
The teams that were not picked: Texans, Steelers, Broncos and Vikings.
That doesn't mean we don't like these teams — or that none of our experts think they can't win the Super Bowl. We just wouldn't bet on that happening at odds as of Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs (+370)
By Gilles Gallant
There's no chance I can't bet on the Chiefs. They've lost one game this season and certainly have had luck on their side (they finished first in our NFL Luck Rankings). The quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) and head coach (Andy Reid) both have winning experience, and this team is tried and tested. If there's a team that has seen every possible defensive scheme imaginable, it's the Chiefs.
As usual, the AFC goes through Kansas City. Arrowhead is a tough place for any opponent to win, and only two quarterbacks has beaten Mahomes in Kansas City in the playoffs. Home-field advantage and a very good defense with the best quarterback in the NFL, that's a winning recipe to get to the Super Bowl. Also, the Chiefs will avoid the Bills and Ravens until the AFC Championship Game, assuming they make it there.
Also, the Chiefs have overcome double-digit-point deficits in the Super Bowl before. They can win when things even look like they won't be going their way.
The Chiefs are the favorites, but all the signs are there for me to believe they will be rested and ready for another Super Bowl win.
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2. Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
By Simon Hunter
It's very rare for a team to have all 22 Week 1 starters healthy, but the Eagles are one of them. (That's assuming Jalen Hurts eventually clears concussion protocol.) Philadelphia is poised for a playoff run.
Specifically on offense, the Eagles have thrived this season. Philly ranks second in the NFL in touchdowns scored this season and have gained the most yards per game. The Eagles can control the clock in a way that will hugely benefit them in the playoffs.
I have the Eagles graded as the favorite to come out of the NFC, but the Lions are Super Bowl favorites at a little more than 3-1. Philly matches up very well with Detroit, and I'd back them in a potential NFC Championship Game matchup. If the Eagles make it but Detroit doesn't, that means it'll be a home game, which is even better.
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3. Buffalo Bills (+650)
By Chris Raybon
With the Chiefs getting the bye and resulting home-field advantage, everything goes through K.C. The Bills and the Ravens are next up, and I like how the bracket sets up for Buffalo more than Baltimore.
A first-round matchup with the Broncos is no easy out, but it's less daunting than the Ravens' third game of the season against the Steelers. Though the Bills got waxed by the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 4, the rematch would be in Buffalo this time around.
I also like that the Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs this season (30-21 in Week 9, albeit in Buffalo), and they did so by multiple scores.
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4. Baltimore Ravens (+600)
By Brandon Anderson
The Ravens were the best team for most of the regular season last season, and many advanced metrics would say that was the case again this season. Baltimore led the NFL in DVOA for a second straight season, this time finishing as the seventh-best team rating since 1978 (when tracking began), just two spots behind last year's team.
Baltimore has had the NFL's best offense and was even better than last season. The Ravens' reworked offensive line took time to gel but has come together nicely with Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely all stepping up as key targets in the passing game.
The big addition was Derrick Henry, who joined a new team at age 30 and responded with one of the best seasons of his career, running 325 times for 1,921 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdowns. Henry is this team's ultimate closer and a player who will make a big difference in potential road matchups against the Bills in the Divisional Round or the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Also, the Ravens defense found its way midseason and became one of the top-five units in the NFL in the second half of the season. The pass defense moved CB Marlon Humphrey into the slot where he's thrived and put Kyle Hamilton more permanently at safety instead of bouncing him around the field. Since then, Baltimore's pass defense has gone from a liability to a strength.
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5. Detroit Lions (+320)
By Billy Ward
The No. 1-seed-clinching regular season finale was huge for the ailing Lions, who at one point had 21 players on injured reserve. Their defense was a top-five unit by DVOA when healthy, but getting LB Alex Anzalone back in Week 18 made a big difference against the Vikings.
Now, with a week off, there’s hope for even more reinforcements on defense for Detroit in the Divisional Round. That potentially includes Aidan Hutchinson, who had 7.5 sacks in five games this season and is eyeing a return for the Super Bowl.
Detroit should have little issue getting through the NFC, and this is pretty easily the NFL’s best team when healthy. Let’s just hope the Lions are able to reach the second Sunday in February so their defense can be as close to full strength as possible.
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6. Los Angeles Rams (+4500)
By Billy Ward
The Rams draw an incredibly difficult first-round matchup with the Vikings, who would be the No. 2 seed in the conference if they didn’t share a division with Detroit. With that said, the Vikings are coming off a hard-fought Week 18 loss to Detroit, while the Rams were able to rest their starters in Week 18.
Much has been made about the “Lions hangover” this year – teams performing worse after facing the Lions. For example, Minnesota has three losses, two to Detroit and the third came following its first loss to the Lions. That loss was against these Rams.
If the Rams can pull off the first-round upset at home, we’ll have multiple chances to hedge out of this ticket at a much better price, especially if they can get some help and dodge Detroit in the Divisional Round. All it would take to make that happen is for either the Packers or Commanders to pull off a first-round upset.
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7. Green Bay Packers (+2200)
By Brandon Anderson
Everyone is talking down Green Bay for going 0-5 against Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia, but why? The Packers have a pair of two-point losses to Minnesota, a walk-off field-goal loss to Detroit and a close loss in the opener to Philly on an ice rink in Brazil.
If you play the best teams on your schedule to a coin-flip draw in four out of the five matchups, that's not a bad thing.
There's a real chance that the Packers are the best, most well-rounded team in a weak NFC. Green Bay peaked down the stretch, but we get it at discount because of an ugly Week 18 loss to the Bears and a possible Jordan Love injury.
It won't be easy for the Packers to win from the No. 7 seed, but Green Bay already showed it can hang with the best of the NFC, and the Packers are also the only No. 7 seed ever to win a playoff game — and they almost won two last year.
Love's injury is obviously worrisome, and the path is worse drawing the Eagles right away in the opener. I'd actually prefer betting on Love to be the Super Bowl MVP at +3600. I wrote more about that here. The assumption, obviously, is that Love will win the MVP if the Packers win the Super Bowl, so why not bet on that happening at a better number than the Packers' +2200 Super Bowl odds.
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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
By Chris Raybon
If you squint at just the right angle, the Bucs are actually the poor man’s version of the Lions.
- Tampa Bay has a top-five scoring offense, ranking fourth at 29.5 points per game (Detroit is first at 33.2).
- The Bucs have a mid-tier veteran quarterback who's performing at a high level, with Baker Mayfield coming off of a 4,500-yard regular season with 41 touchdowns. (Jared Goff had 4,629 yards and 37 TDs.
- Tampa Bay has a strong running game, actually averaging more rushing yards per game (149.2, fourth in the NFL) than Detroit (146.4, sixth).
- Mayfield protection has played well, specifically the Buccaneers' offensive tackles. LT Tristan Wirfs ranked ninth with an 82.8 Pro Football Focus Grade, while RT Luke Goedeke is 29th at 73.7. For Detroit, RT Penei Sewell is eighth at 87.5, while LT Taylor Decker is 22nd at 77.0. Not much of a difference!
- Both teams have great play-callers. Much has been made about Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but first-year play-caller Liam Coen has thrived in Tampa Bay.
- Finally, both defenses will make you nervous but can stop the run and are better than you think. The Lions were fifth in DVOA and 10th against the run, while the Buccaneers were 16th in DVOA and sixth against the run.
It's also worth noting that the Bucs have victories on their resumes against the two NFC teams that are seeded above them, having beaten the Lions 20-16 in Week 2 and the Eagles 33-16 in Week 4. Tampa Bay also beat its first-round opponent, the Commanders, 37-20 in Week 1. Also, the Bucs blew out the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Round last year. and then played the Lions to a one-possession loss in the Divisional Round. Tampa Bay also took the Chiefs to overtime in Week 9 despite a seriously depleted offense that was without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
At 30-1, the Bucs are worth a look. They've proven themselves more this season than you think.
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9. Los Angeles Chargers (+3500)
By Simon Hunter
At this point, why not take a fun long shot? The Chargers have the quarterback in Justin Herbert, the coach in Jim Harbaugh, and a defense that has consistently shown it can get key stops when needed. I'll bet that team at 35-1.
We've seen Los Angeles struggle this season against the league's top quarterbacks, but a potential playoff run might work out for them. The Chargers get C.J. Stroud in the first round after a disappointing sophomore season before going to Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes, who they've already held to 19 points at Arrowhead this season in a two-point loss. Also, it's always tough to beat the same team three times in one season, which the Chiefs would be attempting to do. The Chargers would also be facing a Chiefs team that will have not played its starters in three weeks.
Obviously, then it gets tougher in a potential AFC Championship Game, which would likely be on the road against either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Well, the Bills have the lowest-graded defense left in the playoffs, and Jackson has routinely come up short in the playoffs.
The path is there. The Chargers have won six straight road games, so I'd play them to keep that streak alive to the Super Bowl at this price.
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10. Washington Commanders (+5500)
By Gilles Gallant
Obviously, with the last pick, my options aren't great. I like the look of the Commanders at this price, though.
Jayden Daniels has shown a maturity this season that we don't routinely see from a rookie. His connection with WR Terry McLaurin is impressive, and TE Zach Ertz is a valuable safety valve and brings plenty of playoff experience to the table.
Washington's road to the Super Bowl is obviously an uphill battle, but only one of its losses this season was by more than one score, and that was back in Week 1 against the Buccaneers in Daniels' NFL debut. Otherwise, the Commanders have shown they can compete — and beat — the Eagles, and a quarterback like Daniels has the skills to potentially lead an inspired effort on the road in a place like Detroit.
My picks are the reigning champions and a long shot I really like. I'm sitting pretty on either end of this draft!
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