NFL Super Bowl Odds: Cases for & Against Every Team Winning Championship

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Cases for & Against Every Team Winning Championship

We finally made it to the playoffs. Now, it's time to break down the NFL Super Bowl odds and figure out which teams are real contenders.

Eighteen teams have been sent packing, and we're heading to the Wild Card Round with 14 still vying for the Lombardi.

So, who will actually win the Super Bowl? Which team has the right combination of talent, depth, coaching and maybe even a little luck to hoist this year's trophy? What's the best-case scenario for each team left — and what's the worst? What does it look like if everything goes right, and what's the path for things to go sideways?

Below I'll make the case for why every remaining NFL team can win this year's Super Bowl — and then the case for why they won't. The decision from there is up to you.

All prices are listed below at FanDuel.

Click on a team below to navigate this post.

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Steelers +13000

Why the Steelers can win the Super Bowl…

• Pittsburgh's defense consistently keeps them in games, and Mike Tomlin's guys just seem to find a way to hang around.
• Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee both return at safety to give the defense a boost on the back end.

Why the Steelers will fall short…

• T.J. Watt might be the single most important defensive player in football. His loss for this team cannot be overstated.
• The offense is blah at best, even without Matt Canada, with consistent slow starts — and Mason Rudolph can only be hidden so long.

Verdict: Hard pass. The Steelers are easily the worst team in the field. They have only a slightly better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Michigan Wolverines or Washington Huskies.

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Packers +10000

Why the Packers can win the Super Bowl…

• Jordan Love. From Week 9 forward, Love ranks third in EPA per play, second in CPOE and second in Pro Football Focus grade. His growth curve this season has been incredible. Green Bay has done it again, and the young receivers are growing nicely too.
• Despite its youth, Green Bay doesn't make many big mistakes at just 2.82 sacks plus turnovers per game, which is the best in the NFL.
• Matt LaFleur has done a great job calling plays and maximizing this young roster.
• Aaron Jones is healthy. Even better, A.J. Dillon is not.

Why the Packers will fall short…

• Joe Barry's defense is horrendous, at basically everything, and even worse, they're consistent. Barry might be the worst coordinator in the NFL and Green Bay's defense is consistently less than the sum of its parts.
• The Packers are the fifth youngest playoff team since the merger in 1970, and youth is volatile and unpredictable.
• The special teams are terrible and rank 31st by DVOA, especially bad on punts.

Verdict: Is there a world where Jordan Love emerges as the best quarterback in the NFC over the next month? It's not that crazy the way he's played. But being the 7-seed means trips to Dallas and then San Francisco, so two guaranteed games against the best in the conference. The defense and special teams are too disastrous to win it all, but Love and these youngsters can definitely spring an upset.

Buccaneers +9500

Why the Bucs can win the Super Bowl…

• Baker Mayfield has played the best ball of his professional career this season, a borderline top-10 quarterback on the season.
• Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can beat any secondary, and Mayfield keeps giving them the chance to do so.
• Tampa Bay's defense has been great in the first half and elite in the red zone, keeping games close early and giving the Bucs a chance to hang around.

Why the Bucs will fall short…

• The run game is horrifying, the worst left in the playoffs by a wide margin, and the Bucs offense is terrible by DVOA on early downs, in the red zone, in the first half and at home. But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
• Mayfield is clearly playing hurt and left the game multiple times Sunday after being listed as questionable. The Bucs offense has scored just 22 points in the last two games combined against the Saints and Panthers.

Verdict: By FTN numbers, the Bucs are actually the best long-shot value on the board compared to the price — in part because DVOA hates the Eagles — but I can't see it. Then again … could the Bucs beat the Eagles in Tampa and hang long enough to upset Detroit or Dallas? That part is certainly believable, and now you're in the final four with a chance to hedge. So you're telling me there's a chance…

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Texans +7000

Why the Texans can win the Super Bowl…

• C.J. Stroud is real, and he is spectacular. Stroud has done it all season long, usually late, and looks ready right now. The Texans rank fifth by passing DVOA outside of the three games Stroud missed with injury.
• The defensive line is nasty and can dominate in the trenches and win games, and the run defense ranked No. 1 by DVOA over the past six weeks before being gashed by the Colts.
• The Texans are battle-tested with nothing to lose after being left for dead countless times all season with an endless barrage of injuries.

Why the Texans will fall short…

• Houston is a notoriously slow starter, relying on Stroud magic late, and that's a tough ask for four straight wins.
• As much as Bobby Slowik has done for this offense, his play-calling is far too run-heavy and cripples this offense's upside. Let Stroud cook!

Verdict: Houston already won its Super Bowl this weekend — Texans Island, baby! But there are too many injuries on both sides of the ball, and this team doesn't have four more wins in it.

Rams +5000

Why the Rams can win the Super Bowl…

• The offense is absolutely rolling, second best in the NFL in DVOA behind only the 49ers over the second half of the season. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can and will score on anyone at any time.
• The Rams went 7-1 after the bye, with the only loss to Baltimore — and that was in overtime and on a game-winning punt return. This team is dangerous enough to beat any opponent.
• Sean McVay's offensive creativity and Raheem Morris's defensive antics give the team an edge against most opponents.

Why the Rams will fall short…

• The defense has overachieved but lacks talent. The run defense improved of late, but the pass defense is still pretty bad.
• The special teams are historically bad in every facet, especially the kicker, and tend to come back to bite the team at the worst time.
• McVay hurts the teams with his in-game decisions. The Rams need to play aggressively like an underdog.

Verdict: The path is daunting — a trip to Detroit, then Dallas or San Francisco, and probably both, and the Rams will be underdogs every game. Stafford and the offense are great enough to keep the Rams alive in any game, but winning four track meets in a row is a steep ask. Tempting the way they've played, but the number isn't long enough to present value.

Browns +3000

Why the Browns can win the Super Bowl…

• Jim Schwartz's nasty, aggressive defense had a historic Success Rate and comes in waves all game, led by DPOY favorite Myles Garrett.
• The defensive scheme keeps opponents off guard and makes opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable, and the defensive line can and already has won games on its own.
• Joe Flacco has won a Super Bowl, and he is absolutely dropping bombs and letting it rip. And most importantly, he's not any of the other four quarterbacks that have played for Cleveland this year.

Why the Browns will fall short…

• The offense hurts the team as much as it helps sometimes. Cleveland turned the ball over more than any team this season, and the Browns have the highest sacks plus turnovers of any playoff team at 4.82 per game.
• This just isn't a playoff offense. The quarterback was home on his couch six weeks ago, the offensive line is banged up, the stud running back is out and there's one reliable wide receiver.
• The defense was more good than elite down the stretch at eighth in DVOA the final six games before Sunday. It's also been more good than elite on the road and can be a bit too predictable against elite quarterbacks. The secondary is beatable if the front seven don't win.

Verdict: The Browns are a great story and Flacco should win Comeback Player of the Year, but the general public has gotten far too overconfident in this team. The defense has faded a touch late, and that matters. It would take a historically elite defense plus an average offense to go on a run, and Cleveland is below both of those things right now. The Browns are a bad bet.

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Lions +2200

Why the Lions can win the Super Bowl…

• Ben Johnson's creativity offensively creates at least two or three wide-open plays every game and helps this offense maximize its talent and find ways to successfully move the ball and score.
• Detroit has the best offensive line in the league and a dynamic one-two punch at running back in David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
• The Rangers won the World Series. The Bucks won an NBA championship. The Blues won the Stanley Cup. Why not the Lions?

Why the Lions will fall short…

• Jared Goff. He can't play outdoors and has consistently crapped the bed in moments when it matters most.
• This defense is Bad with a capital B, especially against the pass. The run defense has improved of late and got Alim McNeill back, but Detroit would probably have to win four shootouts.
• Detroit went all out Sunday and it might have cost them Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond.
• Johnson might already be spending half of his time prepping for his next job.

Verdict: The Lions are home this weekend, and we already know they can win in Dallas. Can Goff really win a game in San Francisco? A Lions Super Bowl ticket probably needs a big upset along the way, and that's the one. This isn't crazy, and the number looks a touch long compared to the others if you believe, but the injuries on top of the defensive issues still leave a pretty long path.

Dolphins +1700

Why the Dolphins can win the Super Bowl…

• When Miami's offense is humming, there's simply nothing like it. Speed on speed on speed, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane all capable of taking it to the house on any play.
• Mike McDaniel has quietly developed an outstanding run game that's been just as dangerous as the passing attack this season, especially when the backs get outside the tackle box.
• Vic Fangio's defense struggled to find its footing early but hit its stride once Jalen Ramsey returned healthy and played like a top-five unit for the middle part of the season.
• The Dolphins can win with offense or defense and might have the single highest upside of any team in football if everything clicks.

Why the Dolphins will fall short…

• Miami's offense hasn't been humming lately, and good defenses have been able to throw McDaniel's offense out of rhythm and push Tua Tagovailoa off script. The offense is also unreliable in short-yardage situations and can be too reliant on hitting the big play.
• Health is killing this team at the worst time. The Dolphins are without their top three edge rushers going forward and have significant injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary and to basically every weapon on offense. Miami just doesn't look whole.
• The Dolphins haven't proven it against top competition, just 1-5 against playoff teams. Only the Giants and Commanders had a worse point differential than Miami (-91) against playoff opponents.
• Miami's special teams are poor, particularly their kick coverage. Perhaps you noticed Sunday night — Buffalo fans sure did.

Verdict: I fear the Dolphins are cooked, and that's a bummer because I'm blaming the injuries more than the roster makeup. Six weeks ago, this would have been my Super Bowl sleeper as the defense rounded into form. But injuries buried this team late, and now a battered team would likely have to go to Kansas City, then Baltimore, then Buffalo just to make the Super Bowl. I can't get there, but I hope this roster runs it back and stays healthy next season.

Eagles +1700

Why the Eagles can win the Super Bowl…

• Philadelphia can win in the trenches like it did a year ago. The Eagles still have the best offensive and defensive line combo in the NFL, and there's enough talent in the trenches to win games on its own.
• The passing game can carry them, especially if A.J. Brown plays like he did when he was unstoppable for a month earlier this season.
• The Eagles have all the little edges. The unstoppable Tush Push makes every new series 1st-and-9, the special teams rank No. 1 in DVOA, and Nick Sirianni makes fantastic in-game decisions. Philadelphia will always be better than its metrics.

Why the Eagles will fall short…

• Philadelphia's defense has absolutely cratered down the stretch. The Eagles can't stop a nosebleed. Philadelphia's secondary is eminently beatable and the defense ranks dead last on third downs by DVOA and simply cannot get off the field — apparently even against the Cardinals and Giants.
• The rushing attack hasn't been the same all year, and Jalen Hurts hasn't been nearly as effective as a runner or as a passer.
• Hurts and Brown got hurt Sunday and DeVonta Smith was already out. The Brown injury looked especially concerning.
• The last team to lose five of their last six and win a postseason game was the 1999 Dolphins.

Verdict: FTN gives Philadelphia a 0.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl — same as the Steelers. This just isn't last year's team. The Eagles lucked into a bunch of close wins early during a 10-1 start, then paid the piper late when everything came home to roost. The coaching staff has proven it doesn't have any answers. Something has felt off all season, and we've seen it over the last six weeks. The Eagles are cooked. Philadelphia is the single worst bet on the board.

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Chiefs +1000

Why the Chiefs can win the Super Bowl…

• Patrick Mahomes still exists. Mahomes hasn't been his usual self but he's still Patrick Freaking Mahomes, maybe the most talented QB in history, and he can still win any game anytime.
• The Chiefs still have Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Steve Spagnuolo and Chris Jones too. Kansas City has made five consecutive AFC Championship Games. The Chiefs have the experience and the pedigree. They always find a way.
• Younger players are stepping up. Trent McDuffie has been a lockdown corner and Isaiah Pacheco has given the team a dynamic power rushing attack it's lacked the last few years.
• Harrison Butker is nails, and the special teams are great as always under Dave Toub. The Chiefs are the only team other than the Ravens to rank in the top quarter of the league by DVOA on offense, defense and special teams.

Why the Chiefs will fall short…

• The receivers are terrible and have repeatedly cost the team since the season opener. Rashee Rice has been good of late but there's just no one else reliable for Mahomes to throw too. Even more worrying, that increasingly appears to include a hobbled Kelce.
• The offense just doesn't seem to have that extra gear and hasn't all season. The tackles have been a problem all year, and Matt Nagy's play calling hasn't clicked with Eric Bieniemy gone. The Chiefs offense is no longer fearsome.
• A defense that carried the team early has faded late. The run defense ranked near the bottom of the league over the back half of the season, and the defense was way worse on the road.
• Ah, right — the road. The Chiefs have never had to play a road playoff game with Mahomes. They might have to play two to get back to the Super Bowl.

Verdict: I'll never fault someone for believing in Mahomes, but this number is too short and based on a version of Mahomes, Kelce and the Chiefs that simply doesn't exist this season. Can Kansas City win it all? Absolutely — Mahomes gives them a chance in any game, even this version of Mahomes. But the Chiefs got a tough draw in the first round and face a daunting path to the Lombardi.

Just because Mahomes can win the Super Bowl doesn't mean you should bet him to do so at +1000. This is a bad bet. If you want to bet on Mahomes, you're better off rolling over game by game.

Cowboys +750

Why the Cowboys can win the Super Bowl…

• Dak Prescott was the best quarterback in football this season. He would get my MVP vote, and the way he reads defenses and slices them apart with his precision passing is as valuable as anything any player in the league does right now. He's the best quarterback in the NFC, and it might not be that close.
• CeeDee Lamb has played like the Offensive Player of the Year since the disappointing 49ers loss. He averaged nine catches for 116 yards in 12 games since with 13 TDs, and his connection with Prescott has made the duo unguardable at times. Prescott to Lamb might be the single best weapon in the NFL right now.
• The Cowboys defense makes a ton of big plays, with two legit DPOY candidates in Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland. The defense is even better at home, where Dallas will now play all but one game as the 2-seed, and the pass defense is particularly elite.
• Brandon Aubrey has been an incredible weapon at kicker, perfect until the season finale and nails from deep.
• The rushing attack and even the run defense improved late in the season, enough so that Dallas has no real on-field weakness.

Why the Cowboys will fall short…

• Mike McCarthy may not be on the field, but the sight of McCarthy will turn your stomach as a bettor. McCarthy gets credit for getting this offense humming, but his in-game decisions and clock management have been dreadful and seem to crop up at the worst time.
• The offense peaked midseason at second in DVOA for a month when Prescott was the MVP favorite, but it's been more good than great of late and has completely fallen apart in two marquee games against the 49ers and Bills.
• The Cowboys defense has great metrics but might be flawed. Dallas is vulnerable on middle and deep passes, the run D is inconsistent, and the numbers are inflated by running it up late in games and against bad competition.
• Dallas is heavily reliant on late downs in both directions. Dak Prescott has been great on third downs, and the defense is better on late downs than early, but late downs can be random in small samples.

Verdict: It's easy to wave Dallas off with a flick of your hand as the same old Cowboys, but I really think this team is different. The Cowboys outplayed the Eagles both games and consider how easily Dallas dispatched Washington in a finale most recent Cowboy squads would've screwed around and left up for grabs.

But can the Cowboys win in San Francisco? They got demolished there in September, 42-10, but this is not the same team that played the 49ers. Prescott and Lamb are playing at another level. I'd rather play game-to-game than pay the usual Dallas tax for a Super Bowl future at this point, but if I had to pick any non-1-seed to win it all, the Cowboys are an easy pick.

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Bills +650

Why the Bills can win the Super Bowl…

• The Bills have Josh Allen. Allen is the whole package and can break the game open with his arm or his legs on any play, the one cheat code capable of putting this team over the top against anybody. Allen has been electric in the postseason. If he plays his best ball for four games, the Bills will be very hard to beat.
• Buffalo's defense totally fell apart midseason after losing Matt Milano, Tre'Davious White and Daquan Jones, but the Bills have rebounded and are playing like a top-eight unit again. Tyrel Dodson has stepped in for Milano, Rasul Douglas has played like a star since being acquired at the trade deadline and Jones is back healthy now.
• The change in offensive coordinator has unleashed a power rushing attack featuring James Cook that should age very nicely in the playoffs. Buffalo has also cut down its turnovers since moving on from Ken Dorsey.

Why the Bills will fall short…

• For all of Allen's Superman plays, he still tries to be the hero far too often. He threw 18 interceptions this season, with at least one in all but three games, and he can be his own kryptonite at times when he tries to do too much. Can Allen really rein it in for four straight playoff games — and can the Bills win with that version of Allen?
• Buffalo has won five in a row late but has yet to put everything together at once. The passing attack has faded a bit, especially Stefon Diggs, and the rushing defense has been porous at times. Are the Bills really peaking, or is that just the win-loss record?
• An enormous weight of Bills history hangs over this franchise — all the Super Bowl losses, all the failed postseason tries with Allen, the 13-second nightmare against the Chiefs. All of that is on this team, and it's all on Allen and Sean McDermott much of the time.

Verdict: You're too late. The time to bet the Bills was in early December when Buffalo was +1700 just to win the AFC East. This path was always available then, but you're just chasing steam now if you bet Buffalo at this point. At +650, that's an implied 13.3% to win it all. That's more than double the 6.5% odds FTN gives Buffalo, and it's simply too high to bet at this point.

Ravens +320

Why the Ravens can win the Super Bowl…

• Baltimore is the most complete team in football. The Ravens rank fourth in Offensive DVOA, first on defense and third in special teams. They demolished the 49ers and Dolphins down the stretch. They lost only four times and were tied or leading in the fourth quarter of all four games.
• The Ravens can win in so many ways. Baltimore can turn you over. The Ravens can just shut your offense down. They can run it down your throat 40 times. They can hit the big pass play or dink and dunk down the field. And even if you stop all of that, Lamar Jackson can just ruin everything with a single moment of magic.
• Baltimore is built for playoff football, with elite defense, outstanding coaching, an always reliable kicker in Justin Tucker and a power run game that should hold up well in winter weather.
• Mike Macdonald has been the best coordinator in football, and his defense has totally stymied otherwise unstoppable attacks this season, forcing turnovers and getting even the best offenses totally out of rhythm. Baltimore's defense, not its quarterback, is the identity of this team.

Why the Ravens will fall short…

• Baltimore's offense can rely too much on the likely MVP in Jackson making magic. MVP can be a double-edged sword in the NFL — sometimes a player is almost too valuable to his own team. Until Patrick Mahomes did it last year, no MVP had gone on to win the Super Bowl this entire century.
• Health will always hang over this team. Mark Andrews is a big loss as Jackson's most reliable target, and the rushing attack really lacks explosion with the loss of J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton had late injuries too. Baltimore always struggles to stay healthy to close the season.
• As great as the Ravens' regular season formula has been for years, it's still almost totally unproven in the playoffs. Jackson has one playoff win ever, and Todd Monken's offense is equally unproven at the highest level. Does this Baltimore formula work in the postseason?

Verdict: If you read my Power Rankings, I've been begging you to invest in Baltimore futures since about the start of October. Even now, even as the 1-seed with a likely MVP and incredible metrics, the numbers still show incredible value on Baltimore.

At +320, the Ravens are an implied 23.8% to win the Super Bowl. Sumer Sports has Baltimore almost 50/50 to make it there and about 25% to win it. FTN is even more confident, giving Baltimore a 69% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 43.5% shot at winning at all. I personally think those latter numbers are a bit too confident, but that's a potential 20% margin in our favor and it's pretty hard to argue with.

Even the reasons the Ravens wouldn't win this year above are all hypothetical. This team has no real weakness and has already beaten its top competition. This is the year for Baltimore.

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49ers +220

Why the 49ers can win the Super Bowl…

• The metrics say the 49ers are an absolute juggernaut. If you take out Weeks 6-8 when San Francisco had several key injuries, the 49ers rank first on offense and defense by DVOA, and the offense laps the field.
• Kyle Shanahan's offense has been unstoppable when healthy. There's just no defense in the world that can match up with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, and Brock Purdy has posted incredible numbers running point all season. And we didn't even mention Trent Williams, who's maybe the best player on the entire offense, which is an absolute machine.
• The defense is star-studded too. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw control and take away the valuable middle of the field that the offense loves to dominate. Nick Bosa, Chase Young and Javon Hargrave dominate on the line and bring a huge pass rush. Deommodore Lenoir has been a star in the slot. The stars up and down both sides of this roster — notably all affordable because of how cheap Purdy's valuable contract is — are reminiscent of the recent Rams Super Bowl roster.

Why the 49ers will fall short…

• Is Brock Purdy to win the big one? All the pristine metrics in the world won't mean a thing until Purdy proves he can stay on script or play off it against a top defense, one like Baltimore who he threw four interceptions against. Purdy won't have to win on the road, but he might have to go toe-to-toe with Dak Prescott or Matthew Stafford, and he might have to beat an elite defense in the Super Bowl.
• The offensive line is a soft spot, outside of Williams, and Williams has a hard time staying healthy and picked up another injury in December. The offense gets out of rhythm in a hurry if the blocking breaks down.
• The corners are a weak spot and beatable outside if the pass rush doesn't get home, and the run defense has been mostly average. The defense actually ranks around league average at home versus elite on the road, so that could be an issue if it's not just noise.
• The special teams are poor, most notably unproven rookie kicker Jake Moody. San Francisco does not want this to come down to a kick.
• Any roster with this many stars will always be at risk of injury. Purdy, McCaffrey, Williams, Samuel and others missed time late, and the offense isn't the same without all of its weapons. That's the downside of such a perfectly calibrated machine.

Verdict: I begged you to bet on San Francisco for about half the season in the Power Rankings too, and after months of value, books have finally caught up. This number looks about right — which still makes the 49ers the right favorite — but doesn't show a ton of value.

San Francisco relies so much on keeping those stars healthy, especially on offense, that you're better off at this point betting one week at a time and getting that extra information about injuries and the path forward. If the 49ers stay healthy, they're still my clear Super Bowl favorite — even in a rematch against those Ravens — but health is not a given and we've never seen Purdy on a stage like this.

This is too short a price at this point to bet on Purdy being as good as the numbers look, even as the rightful favorite. It's still a quarterback's league, and at some point, Purdy is going to have to shut all the naysayers up.

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