NFL Super Bowl Odds, Predictions: It’s Time To Bet the Chiefs

NFL Super Bowl Odds, Predictions: It’s Time To Bet the Chiefs article feature image
Credit:

Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

Don't look now, but everything's coming up Chiefs.

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Kansas City Chiefs might win the Super Bowl.

In a season where it felt like Kansas City caught every break, it sure feels like this weekend of Divisional Round football couldn't have really gone much better.

Quickslip

Let's start with the actual Chiefs game.

Kansas City won relatively comfortably, despite most metrics heavily suggesting a result contrary to the final scoreline. Houston far outgained Kansas City, 336 to 212 yards, and became the first team among 50 in NFL history to lose a playoff game with no turnovers and at least a +100 yardage advantage.

Houston's offense finished with a 48-to-39% Success Rate advantage, and the Texans defense was easily the best unit on the field. Will Anderson Jr. wreaked havoc on an outmatched Chiefs offensive line, and Kansas City's passing attack ranked fifth percentile in early-down Success Rate. Neither DeAndre Hopkins nor Hollywood Brown caught a pass, and the Chiefs went just 4-of-11 on third down, versus 10-of-17 for the Texans.

With 20 minutes left, Houston was more than double Kansas City in both yardage and time of possession and had just scored what looked like a tying touchdown.

So, what happened?

The Texans missed the extra point, one of three missed kicks on the day (seven points in a nine-point loss). Kansas City made up its yardage deficit with a ton of hidden yardage on special teams and via penalties, with more than a couple extremely questionable calls going in the Chiefs' direction.

And the Chiefs survived and advanced — like they always do — to a seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game.

But the Chiefs weren't the only team this weekend that won despite finishing the game with a worse Success Rate. In fact, every single team with a better Success Rate this weekend lost.

And you can make a pretty good argument that the results of the other three games all went Kansas City's way.

The NFC 1-seed Detroit Lions lost, the biggest Divisional Round upset in over a decade. Goodbye to Ben Johnson's elite offense, all that Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams speed and the sure-handed Amon-Ra St. Brown owning the middle of the field.

Detroit led the league in scoring and point differential and tied the Chiefs for the best record at 15-2. Now, the Lions are out and replaced by a Commanders squad that eked into the playoffs with a bottom-10 defense and would start the first rookie quarterback in Super Bowl history against the greatest quarterback of this generation.

The Ravens are also out. Baltimore was the tougher opponent for Kansas City than Buffalo, mostly because the Ravens are a better team than the Bills. Baltimore outplayed Buffalo for much of the game, but lost on turnovers — the theme of the weekend.

Sportsbooks told us Baltimore was better than Buffalo. The Ravens were favored in Buffalo, and lookahead lines had Baltimore favored in Kansas City, too. Instead, the Chiefs opened -1.5 against the Bills and are already up to -2 at most books and rising.

Buffalo also saw two key injuries in its secondary. Safety Taylor Rapp left hurt early and corner Taron Johnson was injured late. The Bills defense has had injuries all season and is already the weakest unit in a matchup against Kansas City, so those could be significant.

And then there's the Eagles.

For my money, Philadelphia is Kansas City's toughest remaining opponent. We've seen Jalen Hurts go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl. We know how good Philadelphia's rushing attack is with Saquon Barkley and a dominant offensive line. Vic Fangio's defense would probably be the best unit on the field in that matchup.

Still, Philadelphia's offense has become quite unreliable. A.J. Brown has three catches for 17 yards in two playoff games. Barkley had a fifth-best-in-the-postseason-ever 205 rushing yards, but got most of that on two breakaway plays. He averaged 2.7 YPC on his other 24 carries.

Most importantly, Hurts got hurt and clearly didn't look like himself late. He was unable to move in the pocket and couldn't even run his trademark Tush Push. He also took most of his snaps out of the pistol to make things easier on the injury. Hurts has faded as a passer, so his mobility and value as a runner is now his best attribute.

So, let's review. You can make a real case that the better team lost all four games this weekend.

The Lions and Ravens — the top two teams in most power ratings for much of the season — are out. The Eagles are downgraded with an injury to their most important player. Philadelphia and Buffalo are still dangerous, but less than other versions of their teams at this stage in past years, if we're being honest.

And then there's the Chiefs. Healthy, rested and hanging out at home. Two wins away from NFL mortality.

Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and Jaylen Watson are all back after missing much of the season. The defense rebounded to play like a top-five unit by DVOA over Kansas City's final four meaningful games after a rough midseason swoon.

Now that it's the playoffs, Travis Kelce magically looks like Travis Kelce again. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes.

Were the Chiefs deserving of their gaudy 15-2 record? Probably not. Kansas City was incredibly lucky in one-score games (11-0) all season. The Chiefs finished 12th in the NFL in point differential and were eighth in DVOA, failing to crack the top seven on offense, defense or special teams.

That doesn't matter anymore. It doesn't matter that the Chiefs were 15-2, nor that they were unworthy of that mark. What matters is that their record earned them a softer path in the playoffs and put them now one home game away from a Super Bowl against a likely inferior NFC opponent.

You can only beat the teams in front of you. The Chiefs keep winning games, and if the guys in front of them aren't quite as tricky a path as everyone would like, that's everybody else's fault.

I already bet on Kansas City against Buffalo in my Hot Read. I have the Bills a clear tier below the Chiefs. Kansas City has an edge on defense, in coaching and on special teams. The Chiefs have better pass catchers, better blocking and the better quarterback — plus home-field advantage.

If the Chiefs win this weekend, all that winning experience is one win away from yet another Super Bowl ring — against either a rookie quarterback or an injured one — and that means it's time to bet Kansas City.

The Chiefs are +240 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, but they're favored this weekend and listed (correctly) as hypothetical favorites against both the Eagles and Commanders at FanDuel.

Kansas City will be favored in any remaining game, and I think the Chiefs should be favored by more.

I'd price the Chiefs no longer than +170 to win the whole thing, and I'm not sure Kansas City should be longer than +150 given what we know about Mahomes, Kelce and the coaching staff saving its best for the postseason.

You don't have to root for the Chiefs. You don't have to like it. But it might be time to accept what's been staring us in the face all season.

The Kansas City Chiefs are inevitable, and they're two wins away from NFL immortality. It's time to get that +240 Chiefs Super Bowl ticket while there's still value.

About the Author
Brandon Anderson is a staff writer at the Action Network, specializing in NFL and NBA coverage. He provides weekly NFL power rankings and picks for every game, as well as contributing to NBA analysis, regularly appearing on the BUCKETS Podcast. With a deep background in sports betting and fantasy football, Brandon is known for spotting long-shot futures and writing for various outlets like Sports Illustrated, BetMGM, and more before joining the Action Network.

Follow Brandon Anderson @wheatonbrando on Twitter/X.

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