With only one third of the NFL season left to play and playoff races heating up, we once again put BETSiE to work to predict how the rest of the year will play out. Week 12’s action saw the Philadelphia Eagles deal a massive blow to the Buffalo Bills playoff chances, while the Cowboys, Dolphins, and 49ers all kept rolling, each overtaking division rivals by more than two possessions.
Here is what BETSiE predicted:
| TEAM | Wins | Losses | Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
| Miami Dolphins | 11.7 | 5.3 | 97.1% | 91.1% | 16.8% | 8.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | 9.0 | 8.0 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| New York Jets | 6.3 | 10.7 | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| New England Patriots | 4.0 | 13.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12.2 | 4.8 | 97.7% | 72.5% | 25.4% | 12.7% |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.2 | 6.8 | 72.4% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.9 | 7.1 | 70.0% | 13.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7.6 | 9.4 | 6.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.9 | 5.1 | 97.1% | 87.9% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | 7.5 | 49.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.1 | 7.9 | 43.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.9 | 11.1 | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 | 4.5 | 97.9% | 95.4% | 29.7% | 14.9% |
| Denver Broncos | 8.9 | 8.1 | 36.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.6 | 9.4 | 10.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.6 | 10.4 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 13.9 | 3.1 | 98.4% | 87.7% | 28.9% | 14.6% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 11.9 | 5.1 | 98.1% | 12.3% | 20.2% | 10.9% |
| Washington Commanders | 5.4 | 11.6 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| New York Giants | 5.3 | 11.7 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.4 | 5.6 | 96.6% | 83.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.3 | 8.7 | 57.9% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.2 | 8.8 | 46.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 5.9 | 11.1 | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 | 8.5 | 50.0% | 39.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.1 | 8.9 | 49.1% | 42.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.9 | 10.1 | 25.4% | 17.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 2.9 | 14.1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12.3 | 4.7 | 98.4% | 95.7% | 34.5% | 18.5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | 8.5 | 41.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.0 | 9.0 | 28.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.4 | 13.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
With three straight wins, the San Francisco 49ers continue to be the favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come February with a 18.5% chance, up from 17.7% after last week’s games.
While the Kansas City Chiefs are still favored to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl with a 29.7% chance they win the conference, they face a growing threat from the Baltimore Ravens who now have a 25.4% chance to make it to Vegas for the big game. This is up from 21.9% after Week 11.
After a tough loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars the Houston Texans path to the playoffs is getting more difficult. Their chances of making the postseason fell to 49.3%, down over 10% from last week. The Jags remain the heavy favorite to win the AFC South with a 97.1% chance.
Over in Pittsburgh, however, things are looking up. After the team's best offensive game since the pre-Matt Canada days the Steelers playoff chances jumped nearly 20%, up from 51.6% to an even 70% shot.
The NFC South continues to tighten up. The New Orleans Saints now have just a 50% likelihood of winning the division, down from 62.6% last week. In contrast, the Atlanta Falcons’ chances have climbed to 49.1% from 30% after defeating the Saints this past Sunday.
NFL Betting Futures
According to the supercomputer, the San Francisco 49ers have the highest chance of winning the Super Bowl (18.6%). The Kansas City Chiefs are in second place, given a 13.7% chance of winning. The Dolphins are given a 10.8% chance, sitting comfortably in third place. BETSiE claims that a Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the 49ers is the most likely matchup, but that we shouldn’t count out the Dolphins, the Eagles, and the Bills for a spot either.
If you want to bet on any of the teams above, or take a flyer on a dark horse, be sure to check out Action's updated NFL futures odds to get the best line on your Super Bowl pick. If you're new to sports betting, read through our detailed sportsbooks reviews and get the best promo code offerings available for the rest of the NFL season!
Methodology
NFL BETSiE simulates the entire NFL season 100,000 times predicting average scores and win-loss probabilities for each game. Heading into the season, each NFL team is rated by expected points for and expected points against, based on previous performance and anticipated progression and regression of each team. BETSiE’s expected points model takes into account the expected points a team earns play-by-play across each NFL game they play.
