It's hard enough to pick NFL winners in a given week, but Week 17 complicates things even further. Now we have to gauge motivation as another factor in our survivor pools.
One thing we no longer have to worry about is future value. There is no Week 18, so it is all about making your best selection for this week and this week only.
Here are the projected odds for every Week 17 game:
And here are the pick percentages for the top options this week:
NFL Week 17 Survivor Pool Analysis
Week 17's best options do not have a lot of public support because they are the league's top teams and most people have used all of them to get to this point. If you still have the Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Patriots or Steelers, then you can go ahead and plug them in this week.
I think you can also use the Saints, but they have zero incentive to win this game which feels troubling. Still, they are going against a Panthers team with an undrafted rookie at quarterback which should relieve some of those doubts.
After that, I would take the Ravens and Texans as good options. I know a lot of people are finally coming around on the Browns, but the Ravens' defense is the best in the league and should give Baltimore a great chance to win with its playoff hopes on the line.
I imagine a good number of you reading don't have any of the teams available that I've mentioned so far and are looking for teams further down the board.
I think the Packers and Giants can both be that team.
The Cowboys are locked into the 4-seed and have no reason to play their starters. The betting market has made the Giants 6-point favorites and my model reflects a similar win percentage.
If we learn that the Cowboys will (for some reason) play their starters, then you have to scrap your plans and move on but I think Dallas plays it smart, making the Giants a good survivor pick this week.
A few teams I do not endorse include the Eagles, Colts and Bills.
The Eagles are the most popular pick which is the only reason I would try to avoid them. I wouldn't take an underdog just for the sake of fading them, but if you have another reasonable option then I would stay away from Philadelphia.
I don't like the Colts as of this writing. If we find out that Marcus Mariota is out and you can go against Blaine Gabbert, then my feelings would immediately change.
My model continues to hate the Bills mainly because they can't throw. Josh Allen has circumvented that shortcoming by running all over the place, but I wouldn't trust Buffalo with my money in the final week of the season.
For most of you, this is a simple exercise. Take the team with the highest chance of winning. If you have two picks to make, then just repeat the same process again.
I would try to avoid Philadelphia if you could but would still prefer them over teams like Buffalo and Indianapolis.
As always, if you have any questions you can hit me up on Twitter @BetLabsTravis. Best of luck, I hope to see some screenshots of winners in my timeline on Sunday.
