The NFL has avoided big upsets over the past few weeks, which means a large majority of survivor pools have remained stagnant in terms of entries remaining.
So the key is having teams left that give you the best chance to win. If you read this every week, I apologize for beating a dead horse, but you should be mapping out your remaining games to find the best combination possible.
Here are the projected win percentages for every game remaining in the NFL regular season:
There are five teams that clear the 70% threshold, which I've been targeting each week. Here are the key stats to know for these five teams:
The Packers win percentage has been updated now that Brock Osweiler has been announced as the starter. Also the Jets percentage has been updated to reflect the quarterback matchup of Josh McCown vs. Derek Anderson.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
I've been targeting the Chiefs for this exact game and stressed to save Kansas City for this week.
You get a team with a 92% win percentage and a team that fewer than 20% of pools are taking, largely because the Chiefs aren't an option.
What if you don't have the Chiefs? You now have three teams bunched together behind them in the Chargers, Jets, and Packers. The Chargers are the best overall team of the three and have the most potential games remaining including Week 12 against Arizona.
The Jets get the Bills at home although they are now using a backup quarterback. But a funny thing happened when I plugged in Josh McCown as the quarterback. The Jets' winning percentage went up!
The Jets drafted Sam Darnold to be the future so it is a good decision to get him as many starts as possible, but his projected turnover rate is preventing the Jets from winning some games.
The Packers are also facing a backup quarterback and I wouldn't be surprised to see more people picking them as the week goes on. It's a lot easier to put your fate in Aaron Rodgers' hands at home than it is Josh McCown's.
Once again, I would urge you to look ahead at the schedule. In Week 13, the Packers get Arizona at home (I'm not picking on you Cardinals fans, I swear). If that is your best option then, I'd save Green Bay and use the Jets this week.
If you have the Chiefs as an option, use the Chiefs. You have a great edge over every player in your pool who can't use them this week. USE THE CHIEFS.
If you don't have the Chiefs, I would go with the Jets. It's not ideal, but at home against the Buffalo Bills is not the worst spot.
I know some leagues must pick two teams late in the season, so the Jets would be my second pick in that scenario, as well.
As always if you have any questions you can ask me on twitter @BetLabsTravis.
