Welcome to Week 9 of your NFL survivor pool. Options are starting to thin out, and it is imperative to plan out a strategy for the upcoming weeks.
I suggest sketching out the next five weeks to see how they shake out. These teams will likely change, but it gives you a sense of which teams you might need to save in your particular situation.
Here are the odds to win each game through the rest of the season.
Sixteen teams have byes in Weeks 9-11. Week 11 looks especially putrid with only one team (Ravens) having a projected win percentage higher than 70%.
Here are the five highest projected win percentages for Week 9 and the key stats to know.
The Bears have the highest projected win percentage with Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman getting the start.
The Cowboys are not a great team by any stretch, but they are nearly touchdown favorites against the Titans according to both the model and the betting market.
Nobody is taking the Patriots this week against the Packers. Presumably, a lot of that is because, most people have already used them.
If you haven't, why use New England against Aaron Rodgers when other games down the road figure to be much easier?
The Panthers are a very good team, but their remaining schedule doesn't offer many survivor-pool opportunities. Their remaining home games are against the Seahawks, Saints and Falcons, who are all better than the Bucs.
The Chiefs are the favorite team in my heart, but I hate them in survivor pools this week. They have three remaining games with higher projected win percentages, including against Arizona at home next week.
Because of its personnel, Cleveland should be better than its record. How much of that was Hue Jackson and Todd Haley?
The Pick: Chicago Bears
When I looked at the projected win percentages, I was concerned the Bears would be too popular in survivor pools. The picks are pretty evenly distributed, however, so I will take the team with the best chance to win and no future value.
If you have already used the Bears, the next best options are Carolina and Dallas. Map out your remaining weeks using the percentages above and see if either team comes into play.
The Cowboys may be a play for Week 17 against the Giants, who could be in full-blown tank mode by then.
It would be tempting to use the Patriots and go ultra-contrarian, but if you have been wise enough to save them to this point, they will be a valuable option in later weeks.
As always, if you have any questions about your certain situation, hit me up on twitter @BetLabsTravis.
