It's Week 10 of the NFL season and there are six teams with byes this week. Our survivor pool options are going to be more limited than usual, so it will be interesting to see how the pick percentages play out as the week progresses.
Before diving in, let's recap last week in terms of pool entries. The 49ers (~40% of entries) were the most popular pick and they hung on to survive on Thursday Night Football. The Seahawks (20%) were next in line and able to win in overtime over Tampa Bay.
My pick was the Bills (~15%) and they were able to handle the Redskins with relative ease. The next three most popular picks all lost as we saw around 20% of entries bite the dust.
The Packers (10%), Jets (5%), and Browns (3%) all lost as road favorites and ended seasons for some survivor players.
Going forward, I'm not going to give one single pick each week as that is becoming less useful as the season goes on. Many of you reading this will have different options than I have, so I'll attempt to discuss all the viable options going forward.
To help you make your decisions for this week and beyond, here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
Here are the top five options on the board with a big question mark at the top.
The Colts are the most likely team to get a win this week according to the model, but a knee injury for Jacoby Brissett does throw a wrench into the process.
This quarterback question may be making a lot of entrants turn their attention elsewhere, with the Saints being the top option at almost 50%. I was expecting the Colts to be the most popular option, but with Indy's loss and a Dolphins win last week, we may have seen a late shift.
In a vacuum, I think the Ravens are the best choice this week. They are highly contrarian and have a great matchup against the Bengals. As good as they have been, they have a tough schedule remaining with Week 15 against the Jets as the only game left that looks like a solid option.
The 49ers would be the ultimate pivot with 0% currently taking them against the Seahawks. Personally, I still like them next week when they host the Cardinals.
The Buccaneers are an interesting play, especially if you have used most of the teams ranked above them. Tampa Bay has zero options remaining, so if you are slim on options you can do worse than facing Arizona at home.
I'm penciling in Indianapolis in my entries while we wait on more injury news. I don't have Baltimore available in my pools, but would go with the Ravens if I had them as an option.
