If you are reading this article, congrats on still being alive in your survivor pool. Making it through 12 weeks of a highly volatile league like the NFL is no small feat.
Last week, I went with the Browns who were able to handle the Dolphins at home. They were the most popular pick, but I didn't think they needed to be automatically faded.
The next two popular picks were the Steelers and Saints. Both teams made it a tough sweat but both came through in the end.
There are no more bye weeks, so there is a full slate of 16 games to choose from going forward.
I will repeat my advice from last week. You should be mapping out the rest of the season given your specific options. Keep in mind that Week 17 will see teams resting starters and will open up some options that don't currently look viable.
To help map out the rest of the season, here are the projected win percentages for the next five weeks.
Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Even though we have a full slate of games, there are only four options according to the model that have a win percentage of 65% or more. Here are those options with the key figures to know.
In a one-week vacuum, the Chiefs are the clear play this week. They are the most likely to win and only 14% of entries are taking them. It would be an easy pivot off the very popular Panthers.
The crux of the matter is this isn't a one-week vacuum. This is the ideal time to use the Panthers because they are projected to be underdogs the rest of the season. Also, the Chiefs have a home game against the Broncos in two weeks that is one of the best options that week.
This may be a moot point for many of you. You may have only one of these top options remaining anyway. If that is the case, you pretty much have to take whichever team you have left and go along for the ride.
At this point in the season, there isn't a one-size-fits-all recommendation I can give. If you are in a smaller pool and nearing the end, you should be trying to maximize projected win percentages over the next five weeks.
If you are still in a larger pool, then fading the Panthers is a +EV play this week and you should try to avoid them if you can. Just make sure you have a plan.
Here's mine:
Week 13: Chiefs
Week 14: Jets
Week 15: Giants (gulp)
Week 16: Chargers
Week 17: Vikings
This plan is written in pencil, not stone. If I can find an alternative to the Giants, you can best believe I will be looking to make a switch. But this late in the season, there may be some risky plays ahead.
