In Week 4 we had our first major bloodbath of the survivor pool season. Forty-one percent of entrants were knocked out in the large Yahoo pool, and I would expect similar results in your pools as well.
Yours truly was one of the casualties, as I had the Colts who really stunk up the joint at home against the Raiders. Many asked if I was going to change my pick with Indianapolis having some injuries, but I stood firm.
The troubling part is that if I had changed, I still would have avoided the Chargers given my contrarian strategy. That means I likely would have turned to either the Rams (who lost) or the Ravens (who also lost).
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
So, I'm out of my single-entry pools, but like many of you I do still have multi-entry pools that are alive. Here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Here are the top six options this week along with some of the key stats and information to know to help make your decision.
With the Dolphins on a bye, the public has decided to fade the Jets and go with the Eagles as the most popular pick this week. I have already used the Eagles in my entries, but even if I hadn't I would be looking to fade this spot again.
The Patriots are clearly the best choice this week. The issue, as always, is that their future value is the highest of any team as well. The crux of this decision will come next week, though.
In Week 6, there are two clear options as it stands now. Either Patriots at home against the Giants (on Thursday Night Football) or the Ravens at home against the Bengals. There is a large dropoff after these two teams.
So the question becomes would it be better to take the Patriots now and the Ravens in Week 6, or save the Patriots for next week and take some other team this week?
Given that we know the pick percentages each week, we can estimate how many entries still have New England as an option. I'll save you the gory details of the math, but I estimate that roughly half of all remaining entries have used the Patriots.
Given that a big chunk of our opponents still have New England left, I would project them to be the most popular play in Week 6 against the Giants. So …
The Pick: New England Patriots
We get them only once, but now is the time to use the Patriots for me. I'm fine going with the Ravens next week and going against the masses this week.
There are a ton of opportunities to use New England, but a lot of them are at the very end of the season. For all we know there could be some major changes in the league, or Donald Trump starts a trade war with avocados and Tom Brady gets hurt as a result.
We don't even know who Washington's quarterback is going to be yet, and honestly it doesn't matter. Go Patriots … (vomits).
