We are nearing the halfway point of the season and if you are reading this article, you are probably still alive in your pool and have a fighting chance to win it all.
Last week, I took the Packers at home and they cruised to a victory behind the arm of a vintage Aaron Rodgers day. It would have helped if either the Dolphins or Redskins could have pulled off an upset, but alas, it was not meant to be.
Everyone who was around last week is still alive this week as there were no upsets. If you were eliminated last week, I assume you clicked the wrong button or forgot to select a team at all. My condolences either way.
It's important to map out your plan for the season. I like to look five weeks into the future and make sure I have reasonable options for each week. The last thing you want to do is paint yourself into a corner.
To help with those plans, here are the projected win percentages for every remaining game of the season.
There are a bevy of options this week that have at least a 70% win percentage. Here are the seven teams that clear that threshold and their relevant data.
*Model win percentage is based on Teddy Bridgewater starting the game. If Drew Brees is upgraded to probable, the percentages will be adjusted.
It is not strange to see the team playing the Dolphins at the top of the list with the best chance to win this week. What is strange is that the majority of picks are taking someone else: the Minnesota Vikings.
The betting market currently has the Vikings as bigger favorites than the Steelers, but it's relatively close. Even if the percentages were flipped, I would still want to take Pittsburgh given that more than half of entrants are on Minnesota.
Let's not overthink this one.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Not only do I like this pick for this week, but I like how it sets up for future plans. Since I saved Buffalo last week, I can use it next week when the Bills host Washington.
Then in Week 11, Minnesota becomes an attractive option when it hosts the Broncos. I would project that San Francisco (vs. Arizona) would be the favorite option that week and would give us another opportunity to make a smart contrarian play.
If you have already used Pittsburgh, then I would jump down to the Texans or Rams. If you can wait until later in the week to make your pick, the Saints become a good option if Brees does indeed make his return.
